I’ve just gone gokarting with friends, and can’t find my blue bag anymore. I called, and they said they’d look for it but didn’t find after a few minutes of searching. I suspect I left it somewhere outside, but unsure. I can’t go back to that gokarting place in the next few days. Will I ever get hold of my bag again? It contained a great book and a pair of glasses, which I value greatly.

FYI I would give perhaps ~20% chance of finding the bag again.

Jul 16, 7:45pm: ahhh welp I feel stupid. When I said the 20% prediction, I felt it was maybe too low but that I needed to counter optimism bias. In any case, the gokarting place just called me saying they’ve found the bag, and I’ll be getting it back in the next 2 days :) I don’t bet on this market because inside info and everything, but I won’t resolve till the end of the week so if anyone wants free money, it’s there.

Jul 20, 1:36pm: Resolving now because I can't be bothered to wait. Got my bag yesterday :)