Will I catch up to Project Lawful by the end of the week?
Resolved
YES
Jun 23
M$1,410 bet
I'm currently almost done with "my fun research project has more...", and I started on June 2-4 or so, and so naively that predicts I should be caught up by the end of the week. However, my new job starts this week, and so I'll probably be reading less than habitually. If I'm caught up to the most recent part of the story by June 22nd, I'll resolve this to YES. Otherwise, to NO. Jun 15, 7:29pm: I'm a tenth of the way through "what the truth can destroy". Jun 16, 4:05am: Maybe around 2/5th of the way through "what the truth can destroy". Am I missing something, or is there only ~2800 replies left for me to read before I'm caught up to the story, and I've read roughly 14k in the last 2 weeks? This doesn't compute, maybe yall are overestimating the extent to which I'll be slowing down because of work starting in 4 days? Or maybe I'm underestimating it? Either way, I'm not betting in this market because that'd feel very unfair. Jun 17, 2:15am: I've just finished "what the truth can destroy", and am currently starting "crisis of faith". Believe in me, people! There's actually no way I *don't* finish this in time! Jun 17, 5:16pm: I am now a third of the way through "crisis of faith", but I probably won't read much more today and tomorrow. I give ~70% to being done with "crisis of faith" by the 20th, when I start the new job. I finished "crisis of faith" on the 21st at 2AM (so lost a bit of prediction points on that 70%), and am now commencing "the woman of irori". As I've been having a very busy week lately, I personally would estimate maybe a ~75% chance that I catch up to the story in the next 46 hours. I only have roughly 2 hours of reading left to catch up, and I expect that to be very doable. The 2 hours became 5 because of the speed at which the writers are writing. But still, I have the equivalent of 20 pages left to catch up now, and so I'll be done in the next 15 minutes. Jun 22, 8:47pm: I just caught up to "the woman of irori". I'll resolve to YES at close time.

💬 Proven correct

BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic bought M$10 of YES
@ManifoldMarketsUser I guess I felt like this was unfair since I have insider information, but you make a compelling point. I just did :)
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Bionic made M$15!
ManifoldMarketsUser
> There's actually no way I *don't* finish this in time! Is there a reason why you're not betting YES in your own market then? It could be an incentive to finish on time and give betters more faith in you. I think that's the main reason why I was hesitant to bet YES.
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BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic bought M$10 of YES
@ManifoldMarketsUser I guess I felt like this was unfair since I have insider information, but you make a compelling point. I just did :)
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BionicD0LPH1N
Wow, I see that you guys don't believe in me! How sad! What if I tell you that this encourages me to redouble my efforts? :)
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