What will be humanity’s expansion rate as a fraction of c?
10
207
210
2100
59%
chance

Resolves, somehow, to HOD*'s ~spherical expansion rate as a fraction of the speed of light (c).

Resolves NA if we never become grabby or if we only expand in one or a few directions for some weird reason, and resolves YES if we expand faster than c.

*Humanity Or Descendents (includes beings and probe-like objects created by humans, doesn't include light or other particles; for others I'll resolve with a pannel of judges 🙄 or by myself by following the spirit of the question).

Close date updated to 2099-12-31 11:59 pm

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predicts YES

Does this refer to long-term intergalactic expansion rate or something shorter-term?

@StevenK Long-term, so basically total-distance/time.

predicts YES

Any arguments for <.99c given the analysis here?

It seems to me the key paragraph is:

In the estimation of the authors, the assumptions on intergalactic dust

and on the energy efficiency of the rockets represent the most vulnerable

part of the whole design; small changes to these assumptions result in huge

increases in energy and material required (though not to a scale unfeasible on

cosmic timelines). If large particle dust density were an order of magnitude

larger, reaching outside the local group would become problematic

But the authors discuss some alternatives to rockets in 3.2.1, and it seems like you might be able to compensate for dust density by just sending more probes. (Or maybe not? I guess if x amount of dust means one out of 40 probes survives, then 10x amount of dust means one out of 40^10 = 1e16 probes survives. Then again, they calculate 8310 seconds of the Sun's energy to send 40 5kg probes with antimatter rockets to each of 4e9 galaxies, so maybe sending 1e16 probes to 100 galaxies is also doable.)

@StevenK And you got at least a few billion stars to repeat this on within each galaxy.