What weird unlikely thing will happen in the week after close?
8
Ṁ640Ṁ40resolved Jul 5
50%1.2%
An earthquake of 6.0 or higher magnitude, somewhere on Earth.
25%11%
You'll do something that you later regret.
25%1.2%
You will meet a tall mysterious stranger
52%Other
1.1%
You will be successful to a great extent in your endeavors
1.1%
You’ll turn heads and should milk your 15 minutes of fame just for the fun of it
1.1%
You will have a prophetic dream.
1.2%
You will meet someone weird and unlikely
1.2%
You'll have a mystical experience
1.2%
An earthquake of 7.0 or higher magnitude, somewhere on Earth.
1.2%
An earthquake of 5.0 or higher magnitude, somewhere on Earth.
1.3%
Manifold markets goes down for >30 minutes
1.3%
Someone will tip me >M$1000 on a comment on this market, after market close.
1.3%
You will be able to resolve this market easily, and have no regrets of creating it.
1.3%
Ukraine makes a military attack on Russian soil.
1.3%
You'll have good sex
1.3%
You'll have bad sex
1.3%
You'll have no sex
14%
Someone you don't know will say something strange to you directly while you are walking down the street
1.4%
You will experience a lucid dream
At the close of this market, I will order the responses from most likely to least likely to happen in the week that follows. Then, one week after close, I will resolve this question to the most unlikely (in my opinion) response that actually ends up happening.
The responses may be personal or not. I need to easily be able to tell whether they happened or not, though.
Note that the subjective likelihoods I give for each response will take into account the existence of this market. For example, it would be a priori extremely unlikely that I receive the specific message "3912817102" on June 28th at 8:39 AM ET through discord by the user @bob2946197471. But if it becomes a response in this market, it won't be nearly as unlikely anymore (still fairly unlikely though!). That is not to say that such responses are disallowed, only less unpredictable.
Think of something which I'll be surprised that it happened, even after I know its existence as a prediction!
( I'll give my likelihoods publicly at the end of this week, so it'll also be a public testament to my calibration skills or lack thereof :P )
Jul 4, 11:44pm:
*RESULT FOR EACH QUESTION, OVERALL RESOLUTION REASONING, AND CALIBRATION*
YES means it happened, NO means it didn't happen, and MEH means it maybe happened under some interpretations.
NO Someone you don't know will say something strange to you directly while you are walking down the street. -> 4%
MEH You'll do something that you later regret. -> 75%
NO You overtake @MichaelWheatley on the leaderboard. -> 5%
NO You will experience a lucid dream -> 1%
YES You'll have no sex -> approx 100%
NO You'll have bad sex -> approx 0%
NO You'll have good sex -> approx 0%
NO Ukraine makes a military attack on Russian soil. -> 5%
NO You will be able to resolve this market easily, and have no regrets of creating it. -> 60%
NO Someone will tip me >M$1000 on a comment on this market, after market close. -> 25%
NO Manifold markets goes down for >30 minutes -> 20%
YES An earthquake of 5.0 or higher magnitude, somewhere on Earth. -> 99%
YES An earthquake of 6.0 or higher magnitude, somewhere on Earth. -> 85%
NO An earthquake of 7.0 or higher magnitude, somewhere on Earth. -> 35%
NO You'll have a mystical experience -> 0.5%
MEH You will meet a tall mysterious stranger -> 2%
NO You will meet someone weird and unlikely -> 5%
NO You will have a prophetic dream. -> 0.2%
NO You’ll turn heads and should milk your 15 minutes of fame just for the fun of it -> 10%
NO You will be successful to a great extent in your endeavors -> 40%
NO You find that your heart feels strangely warmed -> 0.01%
These results are kinda disappointing. For the two MEHs, I'm not sure if they should be considered as YES or NO, and the lowest-prediction confirmed YES is the magnitude 6 earthquake. I will resolve PROB with 50% spread on the MEHs, and 50% on the magnitude one.
About my calibration, it was... good I think? Hard to say with so few datapoints and for the debatable MEHs! If I count the MEHs as 0.5 instead of YES and NOs, and I check my accuracy by 10% buckets (and translating a 45% prob of YES into a 55% prob of NO), I get:
50-59 -> 0/0 ~= :(
60-69 -> 2/3 ~= 66%
70-79 -> 2.5/3 ~= 83%
80-89 -> 1/1 ~= 100%
90-100-> 12.5/13 ~= 96%
Not enough questions in the mid-range to know whether the calibration is good.
Explanation of the MEHs:
You'll do something that you later regret. -> This one I'm a bit annoyed at because of its vagueness; I guess I somewhat regret a few things, but not in ways that make me able to say I "regret" them.
You will meet a tall mysterious stranger. -> I went to a rat meetup this weekend, and there I met a guy who probably was around 6'5, so def tall. But to say he was mysterious is a slight stretch. He wasn't extremely open about his whole life story or anything, but at the same time, we don't really talk about our lives normally either? He was pretty normal, but I guess I still found him maybe a bit mysterious in hindsight.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
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Someone you don't know will say something strange to you directly while you are walking down the street. -> 4% (base rate, once a year?)
You'll do something that you later regret. -> 75% (happens every day :( Under colloquial interpretations, a bit less often than that)
You overtake @MichaelWheatley on the leaderboard. -> 5% (I'm not even on the leaderboard anymore :'( )
You will experience a lucid dream -> 1% (base rate of 1 per over 1000 weeks of life, but adjusting up a bit)
You'll have no sex -> approx 100% (my gf is currently in a diff country)
You'll have bad sex -> approx 0%
You'll have good sex -> approx 0%
Ukraine makes a military attack on Russian soil. -> 5%
You will be able to resolve this market easily, and have no regrets of creating it. -> 60% (these questions are hard man, idk if it'll be easy to know whether a 6.0 magnitude earthquake happens!)
Someone will tip me >M$1000 on a comment on this market, after market close. -> 25% (ahhhhh paradox, if I make this number small the true number increases, and if I make it large the true number decreases)
Manifold markets goes down for >30 minutes -> 20% (tell me if it does, I'm not going to go investigate it beyond asking around in the discord server)
An earthquake of 5.0 or higher magnitude, somewhere on Earth. -> 99% (happens 5 times a day on average if my sources are right)
An earthquake of 6.0 or higher magnitude, somewhere on Earth. -> 85% (180 per year so 50% of happening every day independently presumably, so should be ~99%, but 85% because the earthquakes might not be independent(?)+multiple a day(?) and general uncertainty about my sources)
An earthquake of 7.0 or higher magnitude, somewhere on Earth. -> 35% (happens a bit more than once a month, and with the same caveats)
You'll have a mystical experience -> 0.5% (base rate: never happened)
You will meet a tall mysterious stranger -> 2%
You will meet someone weird and unlikely -> 5% (uh I guess this is unlikely by assumption :P)
You will have a prophetic dream. -> 0.2% (base rate: never happened, and I barely remember my dreams anyway)
You’ll turn heads and should milk your 15 minutes of fame just for the fun of it -> What??% huh? Disqualified
You will be successful to a great extent in your endeavors -> 40% (Currently advertising for an EA fellowship, and it's not going great so far, but I'm working hard on it so we'll see)
You find that your heart feels strangely warmed -> What?? Disqualified
@BionicD0LPH1N the only person I know of who publicly reported having a heart strangely warmed is John Wesley, founder of Methodism. Probably should be a lower probability than having a mystical experience, since it's more specific.
@MartinRandall Is it a specifically Christian mystical experience, or are there other conditions? I'm not sure what it would entail, but I guess I could un-disqualify it and give it 0.01% or smth.
Oh, and I should probably ask too about the "You'll turn heads and should milk your 15 minutes of fame just for the fun of it" answer. I don't understand what that means nor what a resolution to that would look like.
@BionicD0LPH1N I am definitely not qualified to speculate on what caused Wesley to feel his heart strangely warmed, but I suppose you'd know if it happened to you.
@BionicD0LPH1N "turning heads" means that people are turning their heads to look at you as they pass you on the street, for example. Maybe you'll be wearing a great outfit? It's written to be horoscope material.