Resolution Criteria

The Health, Education, Labor and Pension (HELP) committee must first advance her nomination to the full Senate floor, where she will face a vote from the full GOP-controlled Senate. The market resolves YES if Casey Means receives a majority vote in the Senate and is confirmed as Surgeon General. The market resolves NO if the Senate votes to reject her nomination or if her nomination is withdrawn. Resolution can be verified through official Senate voting records at Senate.gov.

If Means is not confirmed by the closing date (12/31/2026), even if no official action listed above has been taken, this market will resolve NO.

Background

The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee held confirmation hearings for President Donald Trump's nominee for Surgeon General, Dr. Casey Means on February 25, 2026. The surgeon general is typically a physician with clinical experience; Means dropped out of her medical residency program, and her Oregon medical license is inactive. Means' influence made the 38-year-old a recognizable early advocate of the MAHA movement. Means appears on track to be confirmed, in what could be the last Senate vote on a Trump health nominee before the midterm elections.

Considerations

Former Surgeon General Jerome Adams is raising doubts about President Trump's surgeon general nominee Casey Means, arguing she lacks the qualifications needed for the role. Senators grilled Means on her qualifications, including her lack of a medical license, as well as her business endeavors. In prior filings, Means pledged that, if confirmed, she would resign from her position as an adviser for a wellness company and promised to stop working as an influencer promoting supplements and other wellness products. During the hearing, Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., referenced allegations from a watchdog group that Means violated a Federal Trade Commission policy requiring those who are promoting products online to disclose financial relationships to those companies.

This description was generated by AI.