Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if any daily average CO2 measurement at Mauna Loa Observatory reaches or exceeds 432.25 ppm on any day in 2026. Resolution will be determined using daily mean data from NOAA GML (Mauna Loa Observatory), available at https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html. Daily averages are filtered to represent "background" conditions, excluding local emissions or volcanic influences, and require low variability within and between hours.

Background

The 2026 annual average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa is forecast to be 429.4 ± 0.6 ppm. At Mauna Loa, the highest monthly value each year occurs in May, with May 2024 reaching just under 427 ppm. The seasonal cycle of highs and lows is driven by Northern Hemisphere summer vegetation growth, which reduces atmospheric carbon dioxide, and winter decay, which increases it.

Considerations

It is possible that no daily average can be computed for a given day if hourly averages do not satisfy background conditions, and daily average values may change as additional data become available.

This description was generated by AI.