According to the closing time of this market, so not exactly two days.
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@turb I have a suspicion that these are two mainly separate groups of people. I would be pretty incredulous is someone claimed to have some knowledge of probability theory and earnestly espoused the gamblers fallacy lmao
Do I understand the resolution criteria correctly: as soon as a *00 bitcoin block appears on the page https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/blocks/btc this market resolves to YES, and If this doesn't happen before the closing time of the market (2023-04-29 20:59:00 UTC) it resolves NO?
Probably, we should also consider this:
That block should be mined after this market was created
Is there is a clear indication that NNN...00 shown on blockchain.com as fake (several other trusted sources does not confirm this) such NNN...00 should not count as YES
Do people think markets with clear probabilities like this are good for the platform? Betting just hinges on paying attention and interpretation of the resolution criteria, neither of which seem like good things to focus Manifold on. Maybe you can argue it moves funds from people who don't understand probability to those who do, but that doesn't seem very important.
@JacyAnthis I say just let people create what markets they want to create. To me one major appeal of Manifold is the limitless possibilities of markets that I can create here. Let traders decide for themselves whether a market has value or not.
@JacyAnthis Yes. For a few reasons:
It's a way for people to practice using prediction markets in a context where they understand the true probability of an event
It's a fun way to add a bit of interest to a closely watched event, a bit like betting on sports. Plenty of sports betting (sorry, predicting) is allowed on this site, so why would this be any different?
Real financial markets often have the ability to trade on known entities like this for the sake of insurance or hedging. Hypothetically, someone might have a strategy to profit from the WvM market if it does/doesn't end in the next two days, or they might really want it to end sooner so that they can get their liquidity back. So they'd be able to trade on this market for arbitrage or hedging.
@SimonGrayson "Plenty of sports betting (sorry, predicting) is allowed on this site, so why would this be any different?"
Just to be clear on this point because it's the central argument against making such markets, the difference is that people can have meaningful disagreements about the probability of sports outcomes, so sports prediction markets can give us information about the world. With this market on a known probability, the market odds provide no information about the world itself. (Maybe there is some tiny bit of information about other things like the Bitcoin blockchain collapsing within the next couple days, but that seems moot.)
@JacyAnthis The main value from prediction markets comes from information aggregation. Sure, this probability can be calculated exactly. But are most people going to know or do this calculation? Of course not. This market is an incentive for anyone to go do that calculation and reveal implicitly it’s results to the world. It’s been valuable to me, at least.
@BionicD0LPH1N While I'm watching and waiting for the 00 block, it's kind of nice to have an estimate of how likely it will come in the next day
@Dreamingpast Block hashes are independent events, so previous blocks have no effect on the probability.
@MaxNiederman since the number of blocks mined will change due to the day you start counting i think the probability will also
@Dreamingpast The probability that no blocks were mined between April 21 and now is (virtually) 100%, so counting those blocks has no effect.