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This is going to be a surprisingly close call! What a drop late in the day!
There is not much sport on betting on what it did yesterday. If you meant March 22, it should be resolved by now.
@BruceGrugett I bet big on this, so cross your fingers for me!
@JacyAnthis me too!
@JacyAnthis There is no reason to think it was for yesterday (March 22), as he had another market titled the same, that closed and resolved after market close Mar22. Then, this market was created later
@Gen I probably agree with that, but my prior on "Will a sparsely worded Manifold Market resolve in the reasonable way or the unreasonable way, given some heated debate in the comments?" is only something like 85% reasonable.
I guess there is confusion on which day is "today". I thought it was today, March 23.
Coincidentally buying up the full limit order was almost exactly Kelly optimal (if you assume it's a 50% bet).
AW SHIIIIIIIT IVE MADE A HUGE MISTAKE THOUGHT THIS WAS FOR THE 22ND
PRAY FOR ME
You participated in it too, so I don't feel bad buying up this market lol. You should have known
@PatMyron It started after market close for the 22nd, and in my Timezone, 7.30am on the 23rd.
No reason to believe it wasn’t for the 23rd, it’s a clever misread of the title and I guess you’re trying to bait a resolution on a technicality, but it’s not even correct. Other time zones exist & the market was closed for the 22nd.
I do recommend he changes the title schema though, incase you are being genuine.
@Gen I think it would be silly to resolve this based on March 22nd close, but I can see a case for ambiguous resolution or for March 23rd close resolution, and I would also recommend clearer title/description going forward :)