Will a major city be temporarily abandoned this year, from Apr 7 onwards?
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18
Ṁ1458
Jan 1
6%
chance

Major city: >400,000 people

Temporarily abandoned:>90% leave/die

Can be for any reason, war, disaster, aliens, wtv.

Either I hear about it on the news or you have to link to it with proof.

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Gaza city is probably about 2/3rds depopulated (population estimate for northern Gaza: 652,597 + 270,245 from the 2017 census + 5.6%/year growth since (extrapolated from the difference between the 2007 and 2012 Gaza City census) = 1,280,000 in 2023, and UN Ocha via BBC estimate that currently 400,000 remain), but at the current pace probably won't reach 90% by the end of 2024.

sold Ṁ26 YES

I don't think the hurricanes Helene & Milton evacuations met these thresholds. 5.5 million people were directed to evacuate for Milton, but not at the whole-cities level. For example, Tampa is divided into evacuation zones and only zones A and B were under mandatory evacuation order, which 1. isn't 90% of Tampa, and 2. you could flee from zones A & B into zone E (highest ground) without leaving the city.

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