Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if California Assembly Bill 609 (AB 609) is enacted into law by December 31, 2026. Enactment occurs when the bill is passed by both the California State Assembly and Senate and is signed by the Governor. If the bill fails to pass either chamber, is vetoed without an override, or is not signed into law by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

Introduced on February 13, 2025, by Assemblymember Buffy Wicks, AB 609 aims to amend the Housing Accountability Act to facilitate housing development in California. The bill is part of a broader 22-bill housing package designed to address the state's housing crisis. (axios.com)

As of April 28, 2025, AB 609 has undergone several amendments and is progressing through the legislative process. On April 24, 2025, the bill was read a second time and amended in the Assembly. (trackbill.com)

Considerations:

• Legislative Process: The bill must pass through various committees and both legislative chambers before reaching the Governor's desk.

• Political Climate: The bill's success may depend on bipartisan support and alignment with the state's housing priorities.

• Stakeholder Influence: Support or opposition from housing advocates, environmental groups, and local governments could impact the bill's progression.

Traders should monitor the bill's movement through the legislative process, committee hearings, and public statements from key stakeholders to assess the likelihood of its passage.