Ukraine launches an operation across the Dneiper in Battalion strength or larger.
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@chrisjbillington I said this in the description, but the bar I am using is a battalion sized Ukrainian force on the other side of the river. That is about 500 to 1000 soldiers.
@BenAdams This meets the criterion for the number of soldiers ("three brigades ~ 6,000 soldiers"), is it sufficient otherwise for a YES resolution?
These Russian soldiers estimated that 500 Ukrainian soldiers had already landed in Krinki, although the number in the entire area is much higher, as Western military sources told The Guardian on November 16. According to the British newspaper, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had managed to land three marine brigades on the eastern side of Kherson, which would be equivalent to 6,000 soldiers. Taking into account that these troops fight in rotations of several days, it would indicate that there are at least 3,000 soldiers operating on the left bank.
The Russian soldiers also confirmed to the BBC something that Western and Russian analysts have highlighted. The first wave involves the special forces that take enemy positions and then the marine corps comes into action. Clashes between both armies have been reported four kilometers from the shore, but Vitali, the special forces’ commander, remarks that his men have penetrated much further into the enemy’s ranks. The objective is to locate the Russian artillery and drone pilots so that the Ukrainian howitzers and unmanned devices can neutralize them. He says this is key to ensuring river barges can safely transport armored infantry vehicles, such as the American Bradley tanks, in maneuvers that can take up to 40 minutes.
The cited info from the Guardian is here:
The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, nevertheless acknowledged that Ukraine's counter offensive on the Zaporizhzhia front has essentially culminated, although "three brigades" are believed to have made it across the Dnipro river near Kherson.
"Neither side is capable of mounting a decisive operation on land," one of the officials said, and it appeared that "a prolonged conflict" was likely to follow in which long term US and European military aid would be crucial.
A significant force, described as three brigades, had established a position across the Dnipro that the Russians have proved unable to dislodge, although it was unclear, they said, how much armour the Ukrainian military had been able to get across the river.
@chrisjbillington This appears to be referring to the operations in the Kherson Delta from last month. I don’t really agree with the media characterization of the Ukrainian positions as “across the river” and more so in the middle of the river but considering I didn’t clearly specify and this is the way that most media outlets are framing it. I will probably resolve if there are no other objections.
Here is a picture where green is Ukrainian held I circled the "crossing" in question. Point is that it's weird because it's closer to the west then the east bank
@BenAdams I'm sure it's fairly swampy where they are, but I'm pretty sure the dnieper river is just that thin deep-blue-coloured bit to the north of them - the larger shaded in region isn't river, it's the map shading showing regions of Ukrainian control.
There are houses along the east bank of the river, that you can see on Google maps to the north of the region you've circled. So that's some evidence the bank actually is there,
Perhaps you're not misreading any maps, but consider the whole swampy area to count as the dnieper river, in that case yes, it seems that's not how most are describing it (which makes sense to me at least, given they've built houses in the middle of it, suggesting the river's extent never gets that far).
Apologies if I've misunderstood or mischaracterised you.
@chrisjbillington Again I think it makes more sense to think about those marshes as part of or in the center of the river. For instance, there are other channels of the same river that are to the south of Ukrainian positions. It's like if there was a war between Iowa and Illinois and Iowa said they crossed the Mississippi because they had forces on Rock island