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MANIFOLD
Will there be a dark horse run in the 2026 Fifa World Cup?
12
αΉ€2.2kαΉ€3.4k
Jul 20
89%
Yes, and they will reach quarter-finals
57%
Yes, and they will reach semi-finals
25%
Yes, and it will be Switzerland
24%
Yes, and they will reach finals
24%
Yes, and it will be USA
23%
Yes, and it will be Japan
22%
Yes, and it will be Turkey
18%
Yes, and it will be Ecuador
15%
Yes, and it will be Canada
14%
Yes, and it will be Austria
11%
Yes, and it will be Egypt
10%
Yes, and they will be champions
10%
Yes, and it will be South Korea
10%
Yes, and it will be Algeria
8%
Yes, and it will be Iran
8%
Yes, and it will be Australia

All rankings considered are from the official FIFA's website:
https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men

In the 2022 World Cup, everyone remembers fondly rooting for the Morocco team (ranked #22 at the time), which unexpectedly reached the semi-finals.

In the 2018 World Cup, Croatia (#20) went all the way to the finals. We also had Russia (#70) and Sweden (#24) reaching quarter-finals.

In the 2014 World Cup, Costa Rica (#28) reached the quarter-finals.

In the 2010 World Cup, Ghana (#32) and Paraguay (#31) reached the quarter-finals

In the 2026 World Cup, will there be a similar dark horse run? Dark horse defined as a team that ranks #17 or below according to the latest FIFA world ranking before the beginning of the world cup reaching at least the quarter finals.

Something to consider is the fact that the world cup format has changed and ranking methodology might have changed as well.

Once we get to the final ranking before the world cup I'll begin adding "Yes and it will be [TEAM]" at your suggestion. Each of these questions will resolve YES if TEAM reaches at least the quarter finals

Once we get to the Round of 16 all remaining dark horse candidates will be added to the market.

Market context
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Soccer
Sports Betting
2026 FIFA World Cup
Football
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@traders with rankings finalized these are the possible dark horses from this year in order by ranking. I added t

  • USA

  • Japan

  • Switzerland

  • Iran

  • Turkiye

  • Ecuador

  • Austria

  • Korea Republic

  • Australia

  • Egypt

  • Canada

  • Norway

  • Cote d'Ivoire

  • Panama

  • Czechia

  • Paraguay
    Scotland

  • Tunisia

  • Congo DR

  • Uzbekistan

  • Qatar

  • Iraq

  • South Africa

  • Saudi Arabia

  • Jordan

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina

  • Cape Verde

  • Ghana

  • CuraΓ§ao

  • Haiti

  • New Zealand

    I added some of them so we can start trading as the matches happen. Let me know if there is anyone you guys are missing and, as I said, I'll add all remaining ones for the round of 16. Happy trading!

Good market! When will the eligible teams be added to the options?

@shankypanky theoretically they will publish the rankings tomorrow (we are still on a open window with friendlies played today)
But I'll start taking suggestions now if you want!

At first in order to not clog up the market I thought of adding by request and only adding all candidates after the group stage ends. But it could be interesting to have them all, not sure

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