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MANIFOLD
Will twitter / x.com be open source before September?
152
Ṁ1kṀ13k
Aug 31
10%
chance

resolves YES if X publicly releases source covering the substantial core of the platform (backend serving, ranking, client apps), with narrow exclusions permitted for credentials, third-party proprietary dependencies, and genuinely security-sensitive modules — but NOT if the release is limited to the recommendation algorithm or another subsystem

  • Update 2026-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The timezone used to determine when September begins is Central Daylight Time (CDT).

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@Bayesian Does the whole, complete codebase need to be open source for this to resolve Yes?

or is it allowed to have exceptions like chrome, which is mostly open-source but some parts are closed-source (e.g. DRM-related modules).

@Agh Fable proposes this:

resolves YES if X publicly releases source covering the substantial core of the platform (backend serving, ranking, client apps), with narrow exclusions permitted for credentials, third-party proprietary dependencies, and genuinely security-sensitive modules — but NOT if the release is limited to the recommendation algorithm or another subsystem

does that seem reasonable? I'm aiming to match the spirit of the market

Has Elon ever delivered on one of his self-imposed deadlines? Because for the life of me I can't remember any?

@CourierSix im sure grok can come up with one case

@Bayesian I guess those count but any of the 'meme-ey' ones he does or grand scale stuff is always bullshit imo

@CourierSix yeah lol that all seems like a list of business goals rather than the innovations he spouts

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Bayesian what time zone will you use to determine when September starts?

@Bayesian unhinged

@AffineTyped elon time

@Bayesian but that doesn't even work here, he and twitter are headquartered in Texas.

@AffineTyped is that not PT?!? TIL

ok sorry everyone we’re changing to CDT

@Bayesian hinged enough but still kinda unhinged

@AffineTyped imagine this market resolved NO but in his timezone he had followed through on his statement ! I’m not EVIL

@Bayesian I'm still of the belief that AOE is correctly when a month begins when a timezone is ambiguous