Will Tucker Carlson start a Russian TV show in 2024?
Dec 31


Since some tucker carlson X show clips have been posted on a russian tv channel, and Tucker and his team currently deny involvement, I've clarified the resolution criteria for this unfortunate edge case:
1) If it turns out Tucker actually consented to the show, or if he retroactively consents to it, before the end of 2024, the market resolves YES. Same for any other russian tucker shows he consents to, by the end of the year.
2) If Tucker continues to deny involvement or consentment to any and all russian tv shows until the end of the year, and there is no indication that he is lying (like a tv show continuing to display his shows in russian without legal liability), the market resolves NO.
3) If it seems in my or moderators' opinions clear that he is probably lying about a lack of consent/involvement, it may resolve to some probability relative to our subjective belief in his lies. For example, if it seems likely that he actually consents without publicly doing so, the market may resolve to 50%; If there is no indication of it, even if it is plausible, it will still resolve NO.

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Opinions about Tucker? Here you go!

@traders Reopened the market, and the clarifications in the description are now in effect.

He’s saying he didn’t consent, but Mandy Rice-Davies Applies.

> but Mandy Rice-Davies Applies
No idea what that mean

ok well then we'd be at an empasse. Has it been confirmed that the tv show aired/is gonna air at least

@Bayesian Several reports. He discussed Lyme disease apparently


It’s not possible to prove the negative that he didn’t consent. It’s not like sending Russian TV a cease-and-desist letter would be a credible threat. I don’t imagine The Hague would step in here.

Closing the market for now, to figure out what to do here. Do yall have opinions and accompanying justifications.. If the outcome is "permanently unknowable" that's unfortunate

@Bayesian give it a little time? I wouldn't be surprised if other things come out where he gives an indication he supports it, particularly if the show gets pretty popular over there.

@Bayesian I think it should resolve yes, it aired, too bad for him if he didn’t get paid, which we can’t determine anyway. Russia TV doesn’t need to respect copyrights. That’s all I’ve got.

@ClubmasterTransparent I think if we knew for sure he didn't consent it would obviously not count? That would not be him starting a tv show, it would be people stealing his show. seems like the difficulty is in dealing with the fact that we don't know for sure either way

@shankypanky good idea

@Bayesian yeah I think the question "will he start a TV show" implies that he has some say in it. it's an edge case that it's not the establishment of a brand new show but personally, were it my market, I would resolve it yes if it came to a point that he was in some way consenting to it being shown there (I don't think it's necessary for him to be paid for it, personally, as long as he okays it). unsure whether he'll do or say something that implies consent, but it does make sense that any initial response was "what? what do you mean?" particularly since everyone was nudging him about his little tourism videos while he was over there lol

@shankypanky I agree, if he gives his consent on it it would resolve YES. To the news, atm, he's saying
> Carlson, in a separate text message to Mediate, blasted the initial Newsweek report, writing “this is completely absurd. Reporters are so dishonest and stupid. I’ve never even heard of this channel.”
which, I get he might be lying ig.. if it's true though it would resolve NO I think

@Bayesian well, if at the time he'd never heard of it but once he caught wind of it, he/his people made contact with the network, spoke with them about it, and then said "sure, that's fine, keep going" that would maybe be a yes? it's funny that such a small and seemingly simple question/market has gotten complicated somehow lol

Yeah, that would be a YES ig. They've explicitly said so far that they don't give it permission. If they go back on that, then yeah that would be weird but resolve the market YES. I would bet a lot on that not happening though

@Bayesian ooh a secondary market lol I could make that one 😂

My guess is that particular news network stops displaying tucker stuff whatsoever. also I just remembered, even if this didn't count, the market's gotta stay open til the end of the year just in case. so yeah hmm i could reopen it it seems like i've clarified enough? essentially:
1. if he confirms his consent, retroactive or otherwise, market resolves YES
2. if he continues denying it, and the tv show stops showing his stuff, and he doesn't start some other russian tv show that is not that one, by eoy, resolves NO
3. if he stops commenting on it, and the tv show continues airing his stuff, I will be increasingly suspicious that he is obviously lying, in which case I am again undecided on YES or NO, but I hope it doesn't come to that. I could precommit that a suspicious but uncertain outcome would resolve to 50%, idk.
4. I can create another market predicting this shit but i would probably close it before news is likely to come bc saving subsidy

@shankypanky oh yeah absolutely go ahead!

@Bayesian yeah all of that totally makes sense. tbh I have a regretful Who Will Be On Tucker's Show market so I get notifications when he posts episodes - I'm not going to turn any more attention to him than I already do, but I'll likely notice if there's suddenly some topic about the show in Russia for some reason, and I'll drop a note here. but your clarifications make sense! maybe quote-text them in the market description? (up to you ofc)

@shankypanky yeah, added to the description! and oh no 😭 cursed by the tucker notifs

@Bayesian haha it was a combination of being fairly new to Manifold and sitting solo in an airport on Christmas night waiting for a red eye and thinking it would be an easy and interesting thing to speculate on for 2024 - but he gets some really obscure people on there talking about very niche things lmao backfired

@shankypanky tbh it's fair game to close or partial resolve markets that are too time consuming, or maybe ownership can be passed soon idk, I don't think anyone would fault you for it, or ig the ones that would are wrong to do that

@Bayesian nah it doesn't take much time - I only go check if there's someone whose name I recognise that pops up in my notifs about his show, but it's not terribly active as a market so all good for now (hope I don't jynx myself)

@shankypanky NO. WAY.

Hillary is a genius

@shankypanky https://x.com/NeilPatelTDC/status/1792957581025223130

Twitter is saying it hasn't been confirmed yet. waiting on some more reliable sources or something ig, unless you have reason to think those are super reliable. but this is wild.

@Bayesian yeah I saw that too but I bought it up anyway - I think even if it's his show posted and dubbed in Russia and he didn't initiate the airing but consents, it would resolve, right? is this contingent upon an entirely different show?

@shankypanky Yeah, if he emerges with a contract from a russian outlet to display his stuff on tv, that's what Oracle Hillary predicted, and would resolve this market YES. I think consenting to airing his show dubbed in russian would count as that.