Resolves YES if OpenAI releases GPT-4.5 during the OpenAI San Fransisco, London or Singapore DevDay, or announces its release in the following 2 days (to avoid resolving NO in the case of technical difficulties).
If a smaller version of the "main" GPT-4.5 model is announced, like Google did when releasing Gemini Pro before Gemini Ultra, this counts as releasing GPT-4.5. If they announce a release in the coming 2 days, but first announce this release during DevDay, this market still resolves YES.
A model referred to as GPT-5 doesn't count. A minor variation on the GPT-4o family doesn't count. It must either be referred to as GPT-4.5, or be a clear and major improvement on the GPT-4 family of models, while still being part of it.
See also:
/Bayesian/will-openai-release-gpt5-on-devday
/Bayesian/will-openai-showcase-a-humanoid-rob
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A model referred to as GPT-5 doesn't count. A minor variation on the GPT-4o family doesn't count. It must either be referred to as GPT-4.5, or be a clear and major improvement on the GPT-4 family of models, while still being part of it.
next big llm model version that isn't a tweak of the previous ones or gpt-5. do you think that's clear enough