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Made a market for one year later: https://manifold.markets/Arcmage7000/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of-CQRuROP528?play=true

It is exceedingly unlikely Mangione will be found guilty of murder before 2026 as he has already plead not guilty and as of 2024 the average Federal murder case takes 13.5 months, while in New York it takes over 800 days.

For reference: Daniel Penny, another recent high-profile murder trial taking place in New York, took over 1.5 years from arrest to verdict.

@Lexer Nice evidence. I'm putting my trust in you, Lexer. I'll be back in 1 year to thank you, I'm sure.

I'm ambivalent on the whole Luigi Mangione thing, but it's rather sad to see a promising young man think that this is all the fault of one random CEO rather than the powers that be making our lives worse.

@stardust "the powers that be" are precisely the CEOs dude

@Gameknight Starts with an S and ends with an atan.

The CEOs are tools of the powers that be, much like the atheists, sodomites, Jews, Muslims, transgenders, child sacrificers, and freemasons.

@stardust The-The intolerance! The light is blinding! /j

@Gameknight There is no middle path or "tolerance" between what is right and just, and what is evil and of the devil.

@stardust wow. Just wow.

@DanHomerick ?

Sharing this potential arbitrage again, title and resplution criteria are kind of a mess. Its similiar market but with earlier resolution

I understand Mangione is facing both state and federal murder charges: Luigi Mangione pleads not guilty to state murder, terrorism charges in UnitedHealthcare CEO assassination - CBS New York.

So there's the possibility that he's convicted in one case and acquitted in the other. In that case, I think this market would still resolve YES, as long as the conviction occurs before 2026, correct?

https://manifold.markets/Jx/is-luigi-mangione-the-person-who-sh I'm out of liquidity to do more arbitrage but these markets are out of sync

Is Luigi Mangione the person who shot UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson?

89% chance. Luigi Mangione was reportedly taken in by authorities on 12/9/24. He was at a McDonald's in Altoona, Pennsylvania. https://nypost.com/2024/12/09/us-news/person-of-interest-in-fatal-shooting-of-unitedhealthcare-boss-brian-thompson-idd-as-luigi-mangione-an-ex-ivy-league-student/ I will not vote in this market. Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): This market will resolve based on whether Luigi Mangione is convicted of shooting Brian Thompson, with all appeals exhausted. Update 2024-14-12 (PST): Market will resolve as No if the conviction status is not determined by the market end date. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2024-15-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market will resolve based on whether Luigi Mangione is convicted of shooting Brian Thompson by the market end date of 12/31/25 If Mangione dies before the market end date without being convicted, market will resolve as No If conviction status is not determined by market end date, market will resolve as No Update 2024-16-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will resolve as: Yes if Mangione is convicted of murder Yes if Mangione pleads guilty No if Mangione is acquitted No if Mangione is not convicted No if Mangione is never charged No if Mangione dies before a conviction

@PatrickHunter I think you're confused. He will likely be found guilty and it will likely happen in 2026-2027. In this market you're betting on the fact that his case will be resolved faster than some other public cases, even though his lawyer indicates that they're going to fight this tooth and nail.

@RiskComplex Update 2024-15-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market will resolve based on whether Luigi Mangione is convicted of shooting Brian Thompson by the market end date of 12/31/25

• If Mangione dies before the market end date without being convicted, market will resolve as No

• If conviction status is not determined by market end date, market will resolve as No

Some NO at 64.

Do murder trials frequently get scheduled and fully handled within 13 months? My prior for that might just be wrong, but I don't think they do.

Also family is wealthy and likely to hire strong law team that will fight hard for delays, mental health procedural requests etc.

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso murder trials on that timeline happen reasonably often. If I was on his defense team I would want this trial as soon as possible to capitalize on the public’s fickle sympathy.

@DanielGlasscock Yea it seems like his best defense is going to be jury nullification.

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-a-manifold-user-be-convicted-o

this market should be at a greater price than this market

@Robincvgr oh it's rose a lot since the last time I've seen it lol

Can someone explain the No case? Is it just that he dies?

@FergusArgyll that the court case is delayed for a while and it takes more than a year to complete

according to chatgpt uh

@FergusArgyll

also
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jury_nullification

maybe that could foreseeably happen?

lmao that would be hilarious

@FergusArgyll I've never heard of a murder trial concluding in less than a year. Have you?