Will Kamala's win probability on Polymarket go up during the debate?

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219

Ṁ61k

resolved Sep 11

Resolved

YES

ALL

Formula:
A = average of Kamala Harris' odds on the main US election market on Polymarket in the hour before the debate starts.
B = average of Kamala Harris' odds on the main US election market on Polymarket in the hour after the debate ends.
Resolves YES if B > A. Tie resolves NO.

The debate starts at 9 p.m ET. The debate "ends" when either candidate utters the last word on stage.
N/A if the debate doesn't happen. "average of the odds" has "odds" refer to the midpoint between the best buy and the best sell. all equal units of time are weighted equally (time weighted average)

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#️ Politics

#Kamala Harris

#Democratic Party

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12 Comments

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I forgot to include the "rigged debate" possibility into my simulations, u win this one Bayesian

im down to do it again if the next debate is by some other news outlet and we condition on manifold voting in a poll that it wasnt rigged, afterwards, or something

Currently sitting at Harris 49.0, Trump 48.5. I believe it was something like Harris 46 Trump 52 earlier today iirc

my visual maths agrees with your visual maths

The pre-debate average is starting

boughtṀ1,000YES

@typeofemale I can sell you more yes shares for cheaper than 70% if you want them

@Bayesian lol saw this too late

I estimated what Manifold's opinion on this would be pretty well

If someone is familiar with the Polymarket API and wants to help lmk! otherwise I will figure it out in the day or 2 following the debate (unless the result is obvious, which seems somewhat likely)

@Bayesian No need to use the API. They now offer a feature to export historical price data directly from the market page. Gives you a simple csv file

@Simon74fe Wooooo! Thank you id heard of it a few days ago but it completely slipped my mind

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