🏅 Top traders

I forgot to include the "rigged debate" possibility into my simulations, u win this one Bayesian

im down to do it again if the next debate is by some other news outlet and we condition on manifold voting in a poll that it wasnt rigged, afterwards, or something

Currently sitting at Harris 49.0, Trump 48.5. I believe it was something like Harris 46 Trump 52 earlier today iirc

my visual maths agrees with your visual maths

The pre-debate average is starting

@typeofemale I can sell you more yes shares for cheaper than 70% if you want them

@Bayesian lol saw this too late

I estimated what Manifold's opinion on this would be pretty well

If someone is familiar with the Polymarket API and wants to help lmk! otherwise I will figure it out in the day or 2 following the debate (unless the result is obvious, which seems somewhat likely)

@Bayesian No need to use the API. They now offer a feature to export historical price data directly from the market page. Gives you a simple csv file

@Simon74fe Wooooo! Thank you id heard of it a few days ago but it completely slipped my mind