Will Kamala's win probability on Polymarket go up during the debate?
219
1kṀ61k
resolved Sep 11
Resolved
YES

Formula:
A = average of Kamala Harris' odds on the main US election market on Polymarket in the hour before the debate starts.
B = average of Kamala Harris' odds on the main US election market on Polymarket in the hour after the debate ends.
Resolves YES if B > A. Tie resolves NO.

The debate starts at 9 p.m ET. The debate "ends" when either candidate utters the last word on stage.
N/A if the debate doesn't happen. "average of the odds" has "odds" refer to the midpoint between the best buy and the best sell. all equal units of time are weighted equally (time weighted average)

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