Will Gemini 3.0 be "basically SOTA at everything", according to Manifold users?
11
1kṀ1146
Nov 10
28%
chance

I'll have a poll a week after the first "flagship" version of Gemini 3.0 is released Flagship excludes lower compute versions, that have historically had names like "flash" or "flash lite".

The poll will ask: "Is Gemini 3.0 basically state of the art at everything?"

I will let market participants interpret this question as they see fit / to their preferred level of pedantry.

I reserve the right to close the market right before the Gemini 3.0 release or in the week leading to the creation of the poll, but the market will definitely close before the poll is created to avoid particularly bad incentives.

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boughtṀ1YES

@Chumchulum there's 4,500M more available at that price btw

@Bayesian Thank you Bayesian, but I can't meet you there until a few people buy enough YES "Will 5,000+ Gazans starve" at its new low price. Not to sell, but so I can justify to myself buying much of anything else.

bought Ṁ100 YES

Hmm, ya I hate poll resolutions lol, but if you make a market on YOUR opinion, I'd bet in it too

opened a Ṁ10,000 NO at 31% order

@bens but i want to bet in it too 😭

wow didn't realize a market like this would be unranked by default that's a bit unfortunate but i get it. just hard to have a similar proxy for gemini 3 being very good that is as informative

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