Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before October 2026?

Question

see: How fast is autonomous AI cyber capability advancing? | AISI Work

[image]If a model's average steps completed in 100M tokens hits 32, before October 2026, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 40% chance (2 traders, as of Jul 30, 2026).

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