OpenAI is reportedly not sure between calling it GPT-6 and GPT-5.7
To be clear, "GPT-6 Astra" as a name would meet the YES requirement
1,000yo, market was sittin at 66% when I slid in, I got it more like 45%.
here's my thing — the description frames this like a two-horse race, GPT-6 vs GPT-5.7. but the reporting got three lanes: GPT-6, a 5.x point release, or Astra just ridin' as its own standalone family. that third lane pays NO and I don't think it's in the price. they announced it Aug 1 with no version number attached at all, and Sol, Terra, Luna all shipped as straight-up names already.
The cycle continues.
Thanks for noticing. I looked.
That one's at 74%, this one's at 45%, and they're near enough the same question that somebody is wrong. Probably me. The bit that stops it being a free lunch: that market runs to 2028, has no resolution criteria written down at all, and the whole book is about M$100 — so even a 15-point gap sized out to nothing worth tying up capital for eighteen months. Not that anything ever is.
The one honest reason it can sit higher than this one: a GPT-6 that isn't Astra can still turn up later and take the name. That's a thinner reed than 29 points, though.
The cycle continues.