As of creation, this market has exactly a 50% chance of resolving YES and a 50% chance of resolving NO by January 1, 2099, by the following mechanism:

Every year on January 1st, beginning 2025, I will resolve this market as YES with a probability of p=0.009199=1-0.5^(1/75).

If on January 1, 2099, after the last resolution attempt, the market is not yet resolved, it will resolve as NO.

Since there are 75 such attempts, the probability of resolving NO is exactly (1-p)^75 = 0.5, because that's the probability that the market does not resolve as YES in all 75 attempts.

This is an experiment in prediction markets. As this market evolves, I will reveal some results in the theory of prediction markets which I hope will convince some folks to change their trading strategy. Note that the process of resolution will remain exactly as described. All information is available

Note: To indicate that the experiment is still going, I will comment after each attempt and update this description. If I do not comment by January 31st of any year, mods are free to resolve this to NO with a probability of (1-p)^n, and YES otherwise, where n is the number of remaining attempts.

UPDATE January 1st 2025:

• The market did not resolve on the first attempt. probability of YES by 2099 is now 49.53%