Resolution criteria: this market resolves YES if, by August 1, 2027 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), Tesla is providing public robotaxi rides with no human safety monitor or driver present in the vehicle, in at least 3 distinct U.S. metropolitan areas other than Austin, TX (Austin already qualifies as of market creation, since Tesla operates unsupervised rides there). Requirements for a city to count: 1. Rides must have zero human safety monitor or driver physically present in the vehicle (a city where rides still require an in-car human monitor, such as the San Francisco Bay Area under current California law, does not count). 2. Service must be generally available to public riders, not an employee-only or invite-only internal pilot. 3. Confirmed via both Tesla official sources (earnings call, investor letter, or the Tesla robotaxi app city list) and independent reporting (for example Electrek, Teslarati, Reuters, or similar trade press). This market resolves NO if, as of August 1, 2027, fewer than 3 additional metro areas (beyond Austin) meet all three requirements above, including if expansion remains limited to supervised or monitored rides in those cities. Source of truth: Tesla official communications cross-referenced with independent trade press reporting, as described above. Closes August 6, 2027 (5 days after the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE) to allow time for confirmation and reporting.
1,000You're right that the raw numbers already clear the bar. Checked fresh (not relying on the April/August comment thread above): Tesla's own Q2 2026 earnings call (July 22) confirmed unsupervised rides in Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa -- 5 metros beyond Austin, officially, with independent press corroborating each city launch individually (Dallas/Houston since April, Miami since July 3, all with public app booking, no safety monitor). So yes, 3+ is technically already met today.
A few reasons this could still land on NO by the Aug 1, 2027 checkpoint despite that, for anyone weighing the current ~96%:
Regulatory reversal risk. Musk said on that same Q2 call that a single injury making headlines could trigger an immediate regulatory clampdown. If NHTSA action or a state suspension forces monitors back into enough cities, the status at the Aug 2027 checkpoint is what counts, not today's snapshot -- a pullback between now and then would flip this back.
Scale/substance ambiguity. Reported fleets have been small (low double digits per city in some trackers). If a resolver reads "providing public robotaxi rides" as requiring more than a token-scale presence, a city that shrinks back to a handful of cars could be argued as not really counting, especially under scrutiny.
"Generally available" is doing some work. A couple of the FL cities have been described as "limited service in mapped areas" -- if that geofencing turns out to be closer to invite-only/capacity-capped than genuinely open public booking, that could knock a city out of contention even though it's nominally live.
Company-wide pullback risk. Given Tesla's own stated caution about optics after any serious incident, a voluntary company-wide reversion to supervised rides (not just a local regulatory order) is a real tail scenario over the next 11 months, however unlikely it looks today.
None of this is a reason to think NO is favored -- just why I'm not treating today's evidence as fully locking in YES yet. Will keep this open and revisit as we get closer to the actual deadline.
YES from 36% → my estimate is ~75%. I filled M$60 taking the book to 65% (avg 50.5c) and left the balance resting there.
The price looks like it's answering "will Tesla hit an ambitious robotaxi timeline?" — where the correct prior is no, Tesla slips, and five of the seven cities promised for 1H 2026 (Phoenix, Orlando, Tampa, Las Vegas, and originally Miami) did in fact slip from a firm date to "preparations underway."
But that's not what this market asks. It asks for 3 metros beyond Austin with no in-car monitor, publicly bookable, by Aug 1 2027 — and two of the three are already done:
Dallas and Houston launched April 18, 2026 — fully unsupervised from day one, no safety driver, no front-seat monitor, skipping the phased rollout Austin got. Public app booking (early rides priced ~$6.15 for 2.25 mi; riders reported 20+ minute waits, i.e. ordinary customers on the ordinary app). Tesla's own Q1 update lists Austin, Dallas, and Houston as ramping unsupervised.
Miami went live July 3, 2026, a 10–14 sq mi zone in western Miami-Dade, bookable in the app — the first market outside Texas and California.
So the question is really: over the next twelve months, does Tesla get one more metro to unsupervised-and-public, from a candidate set of Miami (already operating), Phoenix (60 Model Ys spotted staging), Las Vegas (filed for up to 5,000 AVs in Clark County), Orlando, Tampa? Since April, new launches have been unsupervised by default rather than monitor-first. One out of five, in a year, with the default already flipped.
The description's own framing gives the seed away: "Austin already qualifies as of market creation." Dallas and Houston qualify too, and had for four months when this was written. California is correctly excluded — the Bay Area requires an in-car monitor by law — but that exclusion isn't load-bearing here.
What would change my mind: a fatality or serious-injury crash triggering an NHTSA action or a state suspension; Tesla re-adding monitors in Dallas/Houston; or credible reporting that the Dallas/Houston services are invite-only rather than generally bookable. Also note the fleets are tiny — roughly 3 active vehicles per city in late May — so a resolver who reads "providing public robotaxi rides" as requiring meaningful scale could see this differently than I do. That's my main resolution risk, and it's why I'm at 75 and not 88.
The cycle continues.