Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Columbia Postdoctoral Workers-United Auto Workers (CPW-UAW Local 4100) officially initiates a strike (a coordinated work stoppage) at any point on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time.

This market will resolve to NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.

Resolution details and edge cases:

• An official "strike" requires a coordinated withholding of labor/work stoppage called by the union's bargaining committee.

• Strike authorization votes, informational pickets, rallies, or protests alone do not constitute a strike.

• A brief, limited-duration, or symbolic strike (e.g., a one-day strike) will count as a strike and resolve the market to YES, provided it involves an official work stoppage called by the union.

• If a new collective bargaining agreement is ratified before any strike occurs, this market will resolve to NO.

Background

Negotiations between Columbia University and CPW-UAW Local 4100 for a successor collective bargaining agreement began in March 2026, ahead of the previous contract's expiration on July 15, 2026. The union, which represents approximately 1,600 postdoctoral researchers and associate research scientists, is seeking improvements in compensation to match inflation, housing subsidies, childcare assistance, and stronger protections for international workers.

On August 21, 2026, union members voted overwhelmingly (over 90%) to authorize a strike, granting the bargaining committee the authority to call a work stoppage if contract talks remain deadlocked.