Do you sort nations by total metals or only gold metals, or somewhere in-between?
Well, the NYT has an interactive chart of each nation accounting for all weighing medal systems.
Y-axis is how much Gold medals are worth compared to silver. X-axis is how much Silver medals are worth compared to bronze. This means that at the bottom-left, all medals are worth equal while at the top, only gold medals matter. Bottom-right weighs Silver medals way more than Bronze, while weighing Silver the same as Gold.
This market resolves YES if any part of the U.S's chart shows "1st place" at the end of the Winter Olympics. Resolves NO otherwise.
Here's the updated charts (gift-link): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/02/09/upshot/olympics-medal-table-milan-cortina.html?unlocked_article_code=1.L1A.X82D.Dwh5UNOws_w3&smid=url-share
And here's the U.S chart as of 1:44 PM EST, February 13th:
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US has 18 gold/silvers, Norway has 23. To win the medal weighing system most favorable for the US currently (gold=silver, bronze negligible), which is the bottom right on the square, the US must regain the lead in gold/silvers. Given 89/116 medal events have passed, a simple Poisson model gives about a 2.3% chance, or a Z>2 sigma event