Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2023 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?
54%
chance

Resolves YES if Trump is charged by the end of 2023 specifically for the crimes listed in the probable cause warrant to search Mar-a-Lago. Resolves NO if not.

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MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ100 of NO

The Biden documents should have moved the probability lower, I think. Unless there's some cunning play where both Trump and Biden get charged? Do we have a market on whether Biden will be charged?

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielleis predicting YES at 52%

@MartinRandall I think the DoJ is independent enough that they won't be stopped from doing this just because it might imply that they should also charge Biden.

XiJinping avatar
Xi Jinping

@MartinRandall Trump has claimed the documents found are his personal property and fought turning them including defying a subpoena for months before having his lawyer lie and say they were all returned. Not even close to equivalent.

XiJinping avatar
Xi Jinping

@MartinRandall Biden will pay with his political future.

XiJinping avatar
Xi Jinping

@MartinRandall Neither of them can or should be elected again.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting NO at 52%

@XiJinping I'm not saying they're equivalent, I'm saying it has reduced the probability of charges being brought.

The history of charging decisions in this area shows that what someone concretely did is a minor factor compared to who they are and who else is potentially chargeable around the same time.

BTE avatar
BTEis predicting YES at 52%

@MartinRandall Well one of them is still president so having the documents is not possible to be a crime. He can have anything today as president. The issue it’s whether having them while trump was president is a crime which is again not comparable. So short answer I don’t think it makes it less likely Sbf might make it more likely if there is clear and obvious differences in how Biden handled it (aka by the book).

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting NO at 52%

@BTE I think it's still possible for a president to mishandle classified information in a criminal way. I would not expect them to be prosecuted for that while in office because the US federal justice system lacks sufficient safeguards against political interference.

Gen avatar
Genzy

@MartinRandall Trump tweeted classified info, it was not really a big deal. Pretty sure it won’t matter that Biden had some documents at his house while president (and immediately admitted to it, and accepted everything)

if a charge was coming, Trumps will be coming first

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

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