Resolves YES if Trump is charged by the end of 2023 specifically for the crimes listed in the probable cause warrant to search Mar-a-Lago. Resolves NO if not.
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Arbitrage opportunity? /LivInTheLookingGlass/will-trump-be-charged-by-the-doj-by
When your attorneys start turning on you and your other attorneys you are in deep shit.
Seems like Trump was probably showing these documents off for fundraising purposes. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/us/politics/trump-map-classified-documents-justice-department.html
The Biden documents should have moved the probability lower, I think. Unless there's some cunning play where both Trump and Biden get charged? Do we have a market on whether Biden will be charged?
@MartinRandall I think the DoJ is independent enough that they won't be stopped from doing this just because it might imply that they should also charge Biden.
@MartinRandall Trump has claimed the documents found are his personal property and fought turning them including defying a subpoena for months before having his lawyer lie and say they were all returned. Not even close to equivalent.
@XiJinping I'm not saying they're equivalent, I'm saying it has reduced the probability of charges being brought.
The history of charging decisions in this area shows that what someone concretely did is a minor factor compared to who they are and who else is potentially chargeable around the same time.
@MartinRandall Well one of them is still president so having the documents is not possible to be a crime. He can have anything today as president. The issue itโs whether having them while trump was president is a crime which is again not comparable. So short answer I donโt think it makes it less likely Sbf might make it more likely if there is clear and obvious differences in how Biden handled it (aka by the book).
@BTE I think it's still possible for a president to mishandle classified information in a criminal way. I would not expect them to be prosecuted for that while in office because the US federal justice system lacks sufficient safeguards against political interference.
@MartinRandall Trump tweeted classified info, it was not really a big deal. Pretty sure it wonโt matter that Biden had some documents at his house while president (and immediately admitted to it, and accepted everything)
if a charge was coming, Trumps will be coming first
Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2023 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition
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