Will the Mar-a-Lago surveillance footage subpoenaed by the FBI show that Donald Trump took friends and guests into the locked room where the highly sensitive information was stored?
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527
Dec 25
41%
chance

Federal prosecutors have been saying the things they saw on CCTV footage from MAL was "alarming" and motivated the search warrant. (https://dnyuz.com/2022/08/16/f-b-i-interviewed-top-white-house-lawyers-about-missing-trump-documents/)

Resolves YES if the surveillance footage shows Trump had taken friends and/or guests of Mar-a-Lago into the room where the sensitive information was supposed to be securely stored. Resolves NO if we find out the alarming information discovered in the video as something other than Trump taking people into the supposedly secure room.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

How does this resolve now we know the information was stored in multiple locations at various times?

bought Ṁ15 of YES

@MartinRandall Supposedly secure room includes a restroom. Does it resolve YES if he let a visitor use it but did not go into the restroom with them?

predicts NO

@BTE what's your plan for resolution in the no-case? Like, nobody's gonna publish articles that say "the surveillance footage does not show trump taking friends/guests into the room". The question mentions "if we find out the alarming information discovered in the video as something other than Trump taking people into the supposedly secure room." but I think it's pretty easy to imagine a world where that also doesn't happen definitively and the video gets quietly brushed aside by both sides (e.g. if there's no illegal content in the video, but the contents of the video are politically damaging to trump, such that neither side has incentive to talk about it)

predicts NO

no news is NO news 😉

bought Ṁ50 of NO

seems like there's a decent possibility that it's not directly to do with unauthorized access to that room (e.g. some other alarming thing) or that it is to do with unauthorized access but not trump taking people in himself (e.g. a cleaner going in or something)

predicts YES

@Adam Kash Patel seems to have signaled publicly several weeks before the raid that he and Trump had all of the documents that were seized and were about to leak everything. So maybe some other people had a key...

What is it's alarming for multiple reasons?

predicts YES

@MartinRandall This is just a question of whether or not they have video evidence of Trump taking people into the room with no business being there.

predicts YES

@BTE What if they have toileting business?