Will Putin attend the G20 Summit in person?

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resolved Nov 23

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Resolves YES if Putin attends the summit in person in Indonesia in November. Currently the Kremlin claims he will be attending in person but they have been cagey about it. Many countries are calling for them to be excluded but none have yet threatened to boycott if Putin were to attend.

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sold Ṁ128 of NO

https://amp.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3199066/vladimir-putin-skip-g20-summit-facing-cold-shoulder-over-ukraine

predicted YES

https://www.reuters.com/world/xi-putin-attend-g20-summit-bali-says-indonesias-widodo-bloomberg-news-2022-08-19/

predicted YES

Putin’s recent trip to Iran makes me think the odds here are much better than 1/3. He would likely stand to lose more even in Russia if he doesn’t attend while attending costs him nothing. If traveling abroad were a threat to his maintaining power he wouldn’t have traveled out of the country this week.

bought Ṁ70 of NO

Likely excuse : The West is hostile and will only discuss in bad faith so going is a waste of time. Real reason : a lot of people want him dead. Also, it would be very convenient for whoever succeeds him to have a casus belli, like his assassination.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@littlebubulle He has also been extremely careful about meeting other people (remember long tables?). He is clearly afraid of some kind of infection (maybe bc Covid, maybe he has cancer). This will likely be a major factor for the decision.