
Will Joe Manchin leave the Democratic Party by the end of 2023?
46
Ṁ3.7KṀ870
Jan 1
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ88 +789.2%
New probability
12% +0.7%
Joe Manchin is up for reelection in West Virginia, much like Kristen Sinema, and it's definitely not unthinkable he would take a similar path and abandon the Dems but to join the GOP rather than going independent.
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Marnixbought Ṁ100 of NO
Well, apparently now he's not seeking reelection next year. Don't see any reason for him to switch now. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/09/us/politics/manchin-democrats-senate-reelection.html

DismalScientistbought Ṁ10 of NO
Sinema left because she was losing in polls to her likely primary challenger. Unlikely that anyone will mount a strong primary challenge to Manchin.

Confluxbought Ṁ30 of NO
“up for reelection in West Virginia, much like Kirsten Sinema”
I think he’d more likely retire than join the Republicans.
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