Will Joe Manchin be reelected in West Virginia?
19%
chance

Resolves YES if re-elected. Resolves NO if loses in either primary or general election, or decides not to run for re-election.

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Conflux avatar
Confluxis predicting NO at 13%

@AndrewG Curious about why you bet the market down to 8%, if I may ask - is there's something besides this random news story where he said something noncommittal https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3824481-manchin-doesnt-rule-out-running-for-president-or-senate-reelection-under-different-party/? In my mind that doesn't seem very significant.

AndrewG avatar
Andrew Gis predicting NO at 19%

@Conflux I mean, he's 75 and didn't even get a majority of the vote in 2018. I'd say there's a 30% chance that he runs, and a 30% chance of winning if he does.

Conflux avatar
Confluxis predicting YES at 19%

@AndrewG Alright, so just analysis - reassuring to me.

I don’t think your percentages are crazy, but there is the large pressure from Democrats on Manchin to run for reelection, since he’s clearly their only chance in WV. If he won again, he’d have a good chance of maintaining a lot of power in the senate. And he did still win by 3 in 2018. Intuitively I think it’s more like 55% to run again, 40% to win?

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalry

I'll just register that I think both of your predictions are absurdly high- conditional on him running, he has a ~5% chance at winning. I would be impressed if he even got within single digits.

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileyis predicting YES at 19%
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileysold Ṁ22 of YES

@BoltonBailey And to round out the Arb

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ100 of NO

Arbitrage, I think: