Resolves YES if re-elected. Resolves NO if loses in either primary or general election, or decides not to run for re-election.
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Manchin Says He Will Not Seek Re-election, Dealing Blow to Democrats https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/09/us/politics/manchin-democrats-senate-reelection.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
@AndrewG Curious about why you bet the market down to 8%, if I may ask - is there's something besides this random news story where he said something noncommittal https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3824481-manchin-doesnt-rule-out-running-for-president-or-senate-reelection-under-different-party/? In my mind that doesn't seem very significant.
@Conflux I mean, he's 75 and didn't even get a majority of the vote in 2018. I'd say there's a 30% chance that he runs, and a 30% chance of winning if he does.
@AndrewG Alright, so just analysis - reassuring to me.
I don’t think your percentages are crazy, but there is the large pressure from Democrats on Manchin to run for reelection, since he’s clearly their only chance in WV. If he won again, he’d have a good chance of maintaining a lot of power in the senate. And he did still win by 3 in 2018. Intuitively I think it’s more like 55% to run again, 40% to win?