Will Jiang Zemin die before the end of November?
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resolved Nov 30
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YES

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bought αΉ€100 of YES

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna59317

predicted NO

I cannot find any English-language news on Jiang Zemin. He's 96, but why are we predicting a 70%+ chance of him dying in the next 15 days?

bought αΉ€10 of NO

@brp I found some explanation. Apparently rumors of his death are running wild in the Chinese intranet. Total coincidence that I was having dinner with a Chinese guy today when he got a WeChat message requesting him to search the non-Chinese internet for Jiang Zemin news. I sold all my shares on the spot, but I'm buying some back because such rumors usually aren't new: there were rumors of his death in Western media in 2011, 2014, and 2019.

predicted YES

@brp very interesting. It’s possible he did die but with Xi out of the country they are holding back the official announcement until he is back in country. The entire country will go into period of mourning when he does die because he is still the 2nd most important person in China.

predicted YES

@brp Looks like the rumors were accurate

predicted NO

@BTE RIP.

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