Will either the RNC or DNC email servers be hacked before the general election?
3
18
140
2025
34%
chance
  1. Definition of "Hacked": For the purpose of this market, a hack is defined as any unauthorized access to the email servers of the Republican National Committee (RNC) or the Democratic National Committee (DNC). This includes breaches of security that result in access to or acquisition of data without permission, regardless of whether the data is copied, viewed, stolen, or used. The hack must be digital in nature, originating from external sources aiming to penetrate the server's security measures. Physical theft or loss of devices, social engineering attacks not directly aimed at the server's digital infrastructure (e.g., phishing emails to individual members without direct server access), or insider threats are excluded unless they lead to unauthorized digital access of the server's contents.

  2. Verification and Reporting: The occurrence of a hack must be verified and reported by at least two major, credible news outlets or official statements from the RNC or DNC. Major outlets are considered to be established, national or international news organizations with a history of reliability and accuracy. The reports must clearly indicate that the RNC or DNC acknowledges the breach or unauthorized access specifically to their email servers. In the absence of an official acknowledgment, credible cybersecurity firms’ public analysis or government agency reports confirming the hack may also be considered sufficient.

  3. Nature of Compromise: The hack is considered valid for the purpose of this market if it involves either the actual compromise of data (data being accessed, copied, or otherwise made available to unauthorized parties) or the confirmed unauthorized access to the server, even if there is no evidence of data being compromised. This includes situations where security measures were bypassed or exploited, allowing potential access to email contents, attachments, or associated metadata, regardless of whether the data was publicly released or found in possession of unauthorized entities.

  4. Social Attacks and Lost Property: Social attacks (e.g., social engineering, phishing) that directly lead to unauthorized digital access of the RNC's or DNC's email servers count towards the resolution of this market. However, incidents involving lost or stolen physical property (e.g., laptops, storage devices) only count if it is explicitly confirmed that such loss directly resulted in unauthorized access to the email servers. Similarly, incidents involving the sale or unauthorized sharing of access credentials that lead to unauthorized server access are included. Each incident must be substantiated by credible reports or official statements linking the event directly to unauthorized server access.

  5. Time Frame: The time frame for this market is from the date of market creation until the day of the general election. Any hacks confirmed to have occurred within this period are considered for the resolution of the market.

  6. Resolution Criteria: The market resolves positively if there is credible, confirmed reporting of a hack, as defined above, affecting either the RNC or DNC email servers before the general election. It resolves negatively if no such incidents are confirmed by the end of the specified period.

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As reported by major outlets, or based on RNC/DNC statements?

Does data have to be compromised and/or released, or does a simple breach/unauthorized access count?

Do social attacks or lost property count? (e.g. left laptop at repair shop, sold access credentials, etc.)

@Hyperstition LOL I am working on criteria, gimme a few minutes.

@Hyperstition I used my custom market resolution GPT https://chat.openai.com/share/4e9d7af3-3286-4714-be97-5e55f830e4b6

Let me know what you think of Cassandra!!

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