This market is mutually arbitragable with:

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-closing-price-of-bitcoin-o-78b8ed2ac2f3

https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/bitcoin-closes-the-year-15k

https://manifold.markets/MarcioDiaz/will-bitcoin-price-fall-under-15k-i

(I'd do it myself but am out of Mana 😢)

Let's look at option markets for Bitcoin: The implied volatility for 15000 strike with expiry on 30 Dec 2022 is 64 to 82 % on Deribit. https://www.deribit.com/options/BTC/BTC-30DEC22

Using a probability calculator https://www.optionstrategist.com/calculators/probability, we get an implied probability of stock being above $15000 of 80.8 to 75 %.

Therefore, I believe that this market is mispriced.

@AndrewHartman Except that 1y ago, it was at 56k, and then it dropped all this way without major scandals ;-)