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# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ589 | |
2 | Ṁ551 | |
3 | Ṁ315 | |
4 | Ṁ314 | |
5 | Ṁ251 |
This market is mutually arbitragable with:
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-closing-price-of-bitcoin-o-78b8ed2ac2f3
https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/bitcoin-closes-the-year-15k
https://manifold.markets/MarcioDiaz/will-bitcoin-price-fall-under-15k-i
(I'd do it myself but am out of Mana 😢)
Let's look at option markets for Bitcoin: The implied volatility for 15000 strike with expiry on 30 Dec 2022 is 64 to 82 % on Deribit. https://www.deribit.com/options/BTC/BTC-30DEC22
Using a probability calculator https://www.optionstrategist.com/calculators/probability, we get an implied probability of stock being above $15000 of 80.8 to 75 %.
Therefore, I believe that this market is mispriced.
@AndrewHartman Except that 1y ago, it was at 56k, and then it dropped all this way without major scandals ;-)