Resolves YES if Apple trades at or above a $3T valuation.
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Looks like it has blown past 191 in the pre-market so may open at $3T market cap.
@BTE ok but the source in the description doesn’t give the after hours or pre market ranges, just the latest AH quote and a chart. Also, all market data providers keep historical stats for all-time records, 52-week and daily ranges only for regular market hours, which makes it a bit hard to verify any claims about the criteria being met during such irregular market hours (must verify in real time or possibly only on the same day).
@deagol I see. Let’s go with official market data. If someone submits a screenshot after hours showing it above 190.73 I will count that too. Sound good?
@BTE a screenshot “proof” which is hard to verify independently is precisely the exploit I was hoping you didn’t expose your market to
@deagol I thought about that but it seemed ridiculous amount of effort to go to for mana. Especially when it’s so close already, what would be the advantage? The big bet to try to exploit here if possible is NO. That said, I hear you and agree might as well eliminate all possible manipulation and go with only official market data. Thanks for talking through this with me!
@BTE no problem! if you really want to allow off-hours data, Nasdaq does provide the range for both pre-market and after-hours, but seems to me only for the current or last session, so you can only verify if you check by next day 4 PM ET (or 4 AM for pre-market)
getting there… /deagol/will-apple-stock-aapl-fully-break-1-34064acbbb65
$190.73 (+3.8%) would hit the $3T market cap with current share count (keep in mind they keep retiring shares each quarter)
3T requires a very strong 5% growth in half a year. Whatever YESers think you know that the stock market has not priced in, please share!
To be clear, I'm not an Efficient Market Hypothesis absolutist, and Apple is a perfectly good company, but 66% pretty confident to give the theory “Wall Street’s leaving hundreds of millions on the table right now”
@MatthewRitter It’s been doing >35% swings at least 4 times over last 2y, up 39% so far this year in 5mo, you think 5% is “strong growth”? it’s nothing, does that nearly every week. Has nothing to do with EMH, nor is WS leaving nothing. WS profits richly by the volatility at the expense of panicky retail investors reacting to every rumor, analyst note, and pundit blasting up the noise in tweets and hollering on TV.
Each bar is a week, and the blue lines range is the average trailing 20 weeks weekly close +/- 2 std dev. You can measure how rare is 5% “strong growth” there, I lost count. ;)
@deagol That’s fair, I appreciate bringing numbers to the conversation. I’m still on the NO side but reducing my confidence/stake