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MANIFOLD
Will the randomly generated string of letters generated on November 18, 2022 at noon Central Time include the letters "Y-E-S" in order before the letters "N-O"?
20
Ṁ410Ṁ1k
resolved Nov 18
Resolved
NO

On November 18, 2022 at noon Central Time I shall generate a random string of letters at random.org that shall be 10000 characters long.

If the letters "Y-E-S" appear in it in order before the letters "N-O" do this market shall resolve YES. Letters do not have to be immediately in order. For example "QTYIKSYFGHJDENGHKS" shall resolve YES.

Otherwise the market shall resolve NO.

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As you can see "N-O" appears before a completed "Y-E-S", (even right next to each other!) so this shall resolve NO.

Here is the string up until the point Y-E-S appears:

RSBCFFIAZG

TSZBPKHZWB

XSMVLGETMC

RPTIMXOFYI

JKCQGXRMUY

ENNNVDWQRZ

KMBTPGDNOF

HDBYFTIBKA

JEXICDIFPJ

COSPMUYOCI

YZAJJFFHFP

MRLQBSQWEM

HXYYAOINEF

UHHOTPMPYO

SMQTUIFABD

Wrote a python script, ran 100000 trials, came out to around 31%. Might have written it badly though.

@Nikola Same. 1 million trials, three times. 31.2%, 31.3%, 31.2%. Looks like @Jen did the math, and the bots didn't do the math.

predictedNO

@brp Can confirm that no math was done.

predictedYES

@Botlab Numerical answer using probability is 5/16 it seems (draw a tree of scenarios ignoring all other letters of the alphabet)

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