Will Manifold ban "free money" markets before the end of the year?
22
173
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resolved Nov 27
Resolved
YES

This specifically refers to markets that specifically state they will resolve YES and offer free money to any who bets on them, regardless of if they have a bet limit or not.

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bought Ṁ300 of YES

That type of market has just been banned, which delightfully enough means that this market can now be in the "free money" group.

Related:

bought Ṁ30 of YES

FWIW I don't think these markets add any value to Manifold, and take up trader attention for no good reason. I would be in favor of banning these, as they're just exploiting current market mechanics (or otherwise changing trader bonus systems/homepage algorithms to make these much less surfaced.)

@Austin If you ban "markets that resolve to YES and have an upper limit on how much you can bet", people will find some other way to exploit the bonus.

If you ban "anything that seems like it's trying to exploit the bonus", that'll leave people unsure what they're allowed to do and how close to the line they can get.

@IsaacKing The existence of an arms race situation doesn't imply it's not worth it to engage in the race. It depends on how quickly things re-equilibrate. At the very least, it seems against the spirit of the site to create markets that don't ask a question and just assert in advance what the resolution will be. Likewise for markets that ask about something that is not subject to any reasonable degree of uncertainty (e.g. "Will the earth revolve around the sun?").

predicted YES

@akrasiac

it seems against the spirit of the site to create markets that don't ask a question and just assert in advance what the resolution will be.

Even these? Experimenting with the economics of prediction markets seems very much in the spirit of Manifold to me.

@IsaacKing I think those sorts of markets are more defensible than the more recent iteration of "this will resolve YES tomorrow" sort, in that they do have a purpose other than increasing the $M assets of participants. However, measuring the discount rate in a play money system doesn't interest me personally and has little to do with prediction. I don't think the site would really be worse off without them.

How does this resolve if Manifold doesn't ban them, but does change the trader bonus mechanics to disincentivize them?

@IsaacKing that is not a ban. resolves NO

@BRTD What if they ban then briefly, then change their mind before the end of the year?

@IsaacKing In that case the question is still answered "yes" as it doesn't specify the ban has to stick.

What about other types of markets that are trying to exploit the unique trader bonuses?

@IsaacKing they are outside the scope of this market.

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