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MANIFOLD
Will a DFL candidate win the special election for Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat with 52% or higher?
0
Ṁ100
2028
50%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if an official candidate of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL) wins the special election to complete Amy Klobuchar's U.S. Senate term and receives 52.0% or higher of the total certified votes cast in the general special election.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO (including if a Republican or third-party/independent candidate wins, or if the winning DFL candidate receives less than 52.0% of the vote).

  • Official Source of Truth: Results will be verified using the certified official canvass published by the Minnesota Secretary of State.

  • Vote Share Calculation: The percentage will be calculated as:
    $$\frac{\text{Certified votes for winning DFL candidate}}{\text{Total certified votes cast in the race}} \times 100$$
    If official reporting from the Minnesota Secretary of State computes and displays the certified percentage directly, that figure will be used. Standard rounding rules apply (e.g., 51.99% resolves to NO; 52.00% resolves to YES).

  • Contingencies: If the special election is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or does not occur by December 31, 2028, the market will resolve according to the creator's discretion or N/A if no election took place.

Background

Amy Klobuchar won the November 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election, requiring her to step down from the U.S. Senate seat she won in 2024 before her inauguration as governor. Under Minnesota law, the governor appoints an interim senator until a special election is held to fill the remainder of the term through January 2031. That special election is scheduled for November 2027.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

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