An investigation concludes CIA analysts were paid money to downplay the lab leak theory
22
331
390
2025
25%
chance

https://twitter.com/COVIDSelect/status/1701602948357505229

Resolves yes if a government (congressional, judicial, or otherwise) investigation or reporting by a widely respected journalistic source (e.g. NYT, WSJ ^1) reaches a conclusion on at least balance of probabilities in favour by end of 2024. Resolves no if there is no investigation


  1. Any one of the 8 US or UK newspaper described as a newspaper of record on wiki when this question was created

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Any one of the 8 US or UK newspaper described as a newspaper of record on wiki when this question was created

For future reference, assuming this is the Wikipedia article for "Newspaper of record" (revision at the time of question creation), the newspapers are: (US) Los Angeles Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, (UK) Daily Telegraph, Financial Times, The Guardian, and The Times.

so I didn't know this when I created the question but the tweet itself comes from a senate subcommittee! It doesn't resolve this market, because it merely repeats testimony, calling its source "highly credible", but stops short of endorsing the testimony. But if the committee finds in favor of this source when they conclude their investigation, this market will resolve positive.