Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if Texas Tech defeats Oregon in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl on Thursday, January 1, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Resolution will be determined by the final score as reported by ESPN.

Background

This is a College Football Playoff Quarterfinal matchup between No. 4 seed Texas Tech and No. 5 seed Oregon. Texas Tech won the Big 12 Championship, defeating BYU 34-7, marking their first Big 12 title and first conference title since 1994. The Big 12 Championship win guaranteed Texas Tech a first-round bye in the playoffs. Oregon beat No. 19 James Madison 51-34 on Saturday night in a College Football Playoff opener, the Ducks' first CFP win since 2014.

Considerations

Texas Tech has had 25 days off between games since toppling BYU in the Big 12 title game on December 6, while Oregon played just days before this matchup. Oregon is 3-0 all-time against Texas Tech, with their last meeting coming in 2023. Texas Tech ranks third nationally in points allowed at 10.9 per game, while Oregon ranks ninth at 14.8 per game.