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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna105534

Debris field found in search for a missing F-35 stealth fighter jet

U.S. authorities asked the public for help finding an F-35 fighter jet that went missing somewhere over South Carolina when the pilot ejected due to a “mishap.”

He bought NO? Pump it

HURT AGAIN

Is this within the resolution timeframe OP said? I'm getting mixed up looking at all these times. Is it correct that the deadline is tonight at midnight, but this market is set to close tomorrow night for some reason?

@Joshua Honestly, that's why I didn't bet. I think after reading it a couple of times, it is tonight at midnight EST.

(Also, official confirmation.)

@JakeFromHackmud This is why I made a small bet and why I've now sold and bet the opposite.

Question could be clearer but perhaps difficult to get this right.

"Will the jet be found before this market closes? - would be one way to do it

The most recent official tweet doesnt seem like there has been any progress on the search: https://twitter.com/TeamCharleston/status/1703818164503490892

We're at ~23 hours since the F35 went missing (public announcement at least)

1. This is a stealth aircraft, so radar systems, especially older civilian radars would have trouble picking it up

2. They left the autopilot on when the pilot ejected

3. It takes a long time to drag a lake, especially a large one

4. We're 10 hours from expiration.

   Seems like a pretty easy NO

This is an interesting market. I can’t get any good information on how remote the search area is. Also I read that it has a collision avoidance system for if the pilot is overcome by G force and could have flown for a long time unmanned. I think the real interesting question is if this jet had been abducted by UFOs. There probably will be a market for that if not found in 24 hours.

@KevinLobLaw

https://manifold.markets/f/will-the-80-million-f35-stealth-fig-7fd73e7ffdae?r=Zg

Will the $80 million F-35 stealth fighter jet that disappeared be be shown to have been taken by aliens?

61% chance. Resolves yes if a consensus of bettors and other Manifold participants shows the jet was taken by aliens. Resolves no if/when the jet is found, or if a consensus shows that there was a different reason the jet went missing. This market will stay open as long as it needs to, and may be resolved prob if a consensus of the bettors agrees.

@f Of course.

No ULB on these? Guess that’s more of a civilian thing.

Do we know when exactly the F-35 went missing? Cant find it mentioned on any of the articles.

The original tweet was edited, so cant see the first post date. (or can we?)

The oldest article i can find was posted at 20:30 GMT https://abcnews4.com/news/local/officials-mishap-involving-f-35-occurs-near-north-charleston-pilot-hospitalized-after-ejecting-military-joint-base-marine-corps-air-station-beaufort-wciv
And this one at 20:57 GMT. https://www.live5news.com/2023/09/17/pilot-ejected-after-mishap-involving-f-35-search-missing-plane-ongoing/

The plane was probably already missing before they publicly announced it, but it has been missing for at least 13,5 hours already. Effectively they have at most only 10,5 hours from now to announce they've found the F-35. (before 20:30 GMT).

@Dennis5a87 They could still announce a discovery past 20:30 GMT if they include a time of discovery that is earlier than 20:30. So resolution of this to "NO" should probably wait at least a day

@Tarl Of course, and they could also anounce it had been missing since for example 18:30 GMT. Most likely though they wont specify the exact times. Good to wait for a statement either way.

@Dennis5a87 Resolves 24 hours after posting, at 12 AM EST

Those two lakes are a pretty big search area. I just got burned by Cavalcante being found quickly and I'm ready to get hurt again.