Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Billy Evans' biotech venture, Haemanthus, achieves any of the following objective milestones before December 31, 2030:
Regulatory Clearance / Approval: Obtains official United States FDA clearance, approval, or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for a proprietary medical diagnostic test or hardware device.
Commercial Liquidity Event: Successfully executes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on a major stock exchange (e.g., NASDAQ, NYSE) or is acquired/merged in a transaction with an enterprise valuation of at least $100 million, confirmed via standard SEC filings or credible financial press.
Public Product Availability: Brings a commercially available, clinical diagnostic product or laboratory-developed test (LDT) to the open market with documented active commercial sales.
This market resolves to NO if:
Haemanthus files for bankruptcy, dissolves, or formally ceases business operations without achieving any of the conditions above.
None of the criteria above are met by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030.
Background
Billy Evans—partner of convicted Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes—founded Haemanthus (incorporated in Delaware, based in Austin). The startup claims to develop diagnostic technology utilizing Raman spectroscopy and laser analysis on biological samples to lower testing costs. Because of the obvious parallels to Theranos, the company has drawn significant public and media attention, particularly following reporting in major outlets like Forbes and the release of the documentary You Can See Everything. As of late 2026, the company operates largely in stealth, has faced executive turnover including the departure of its CTO, and has not yet launched a commercial product or obtained regulatory clearance.
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1,000