Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if a complete synaptic-level "connectome" (a comprehensive map of neural connections in the brain) of any species of mantis shrimp (stomatopod) is published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal or a reputable pre-print repository by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2032.

If no such map is made publicly available by the deadline, the market resolves to NO.

A "complete connectome" is defined as a dataset detailing the connectivity of all or the vast majority of neurons within the organism's central nervous system or brain. Updates or partial mappings of specific brain regions (such as the reniform body or visual centers) will not satisfy the condition of a "complete connectome." Disputes regarding whether a published dataset constitutes a "complete" connectome will be resolved based on the consensus of the scientific community and relevant neuroscience publications at the time.

Background

Mantis shrimp are widely studied for their exceptionally complex visual systems, which include up to 16 types of photoreceptors and the ability to perceive polarized light and ultraviolet wavelengths. Due to their unique predatory behavior and sensory capabilities, researchers have actively investigated the neural architecture of their brains, specifically focusing on visual processing centers like the "reniform body" and "mushroom bodies."

While neuroscientists have made progress in mapping specific structures within the mantis shrimp brain, a full synaptic-level connectome—which involves mapping thousands or millions of neurons and their synaptic connections—remains a massive technical undertaking. Historically, full connectomes have only been completed for organisms with relatively simple nervous systems, such as C. elegans (302 neurons) and, more recently, parts of the Drosophila (fruit fly) brain. Given the complexity and size of the crustacean brain, a complete mantis shrimp connectome would be a significant milestone in connectomics.

This description was generated by AI.