Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on whether credible genealogical evidence or a public statement confirms Qiaochu Yuan's direct patrilineal descent from the historical Yuan Clan of Runan (汝南袁氏).

• Yes: If a verified family tree (jiapu / 家谱) or an explicit public statement from Qiaochu Yuan confirms his direct lineage back to the Runan Yuan clan (founded by Yuan An) is made available before the market's close.

• No: If no such verifiable proof or public statement is produced by the closing date, or if evidence emerges disproving the lineage.

Without explicit ancestral records connecting his family line directly to the historical Runan clan, this market will resolve to No.

Background

Qiaochu Yuan is a prominent American mathematician, writer of the blog Annoying Precision, and former graduate student at UC Berkeley. He is widely recognized for his top contributions on platforms like MathOverflow and Mathematics Stack Exchange, as well as his past involvement in the rationalist community.

The Yuan Clan of Runan (汝南袁氏) was one of the most powerful scholar-gentry and aristocratic families of the Eastern Han dynasty. Founded by the politician Yuan An (d. 92 AD), the clan famously produced "Four Generations of Three Excellencies" (四世三公), including the late Han dynasty warlords Yuan Shao and Yuan Shu.

While the Runan Commandery (in modern Henan province) is considered the ancestral home of the vast majority of people with the surname Yuan (袁), tracing an unbroken patrilineal line back nearly 2,000 years to a specific historical clan requires highly detailed family genealogy records that are rarely publicly verified for modern individuals.

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