Resolves YES if they get the trustworthy-ish badge by the end of 2023.
Resolves NO if they do not. Also resolves NO if they get banned.
Austin's notes: @tailcalled is on the lower side for a trustworthy-ish user based on number of markets created and overall market popularity, but their posting history indicates a dedication to creating high-quality and thoughtful content, which I would like to see more of on Manifold. Additionally, I really enjoyed their proposal for reflective latent variables indicated in https://files.onlinetests.me/lvar.html.
As usual, I'd love to hear people weigh in on this!
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ131 | |
| 2 | Ṁ111 | |
| 3 | Ṁ73 | |
| 4 | Ṁ55 | |
| 5 | Ṁ24 |
I'm lacking context; I suppose I haven't been around long enough to know how this works. how often are users knighted as trustworthy-ish? is there competition for limited slots? is there a demand from within Manifold to have a certain minimum amount? is there any similar demand from the community? I assume it's a rolling process, but I also suspect this market indicates an intent to give them the badge. whether this market is a test to see how we feel about the nominee or just a fun way to give a glimpse into internal conversations is unclear, however.
An argument for yes: I intend to act trustworthy on Manifold Markets.
An argument for no: I'm not sure you have the information to know that I am going to act trustworthy. I think some people might have concerns due to my comments here, where I give arguments for all sorts of eccentric positions? https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/has-scott-alexander-ever-attempted
I'm not 100% sure what the trustworthy-ish badge is meant to communicate.
IIRC it allows you to resolve other's markets. I would say that I don't intend to resolve other's markets based on eccentric interpretations like the above. (Nor my own markets, for that matter - if I have an eccentric interpretation then I would want to encode that explicitly in the resolution criteria.) And I suppose even if I did do so, you could just change the resolution and take away the badge.
But beyond that I think the trustworthy-ish badge might communicate other things too? In which case I'm not 100% sure what it might communicate.