Will @PeterWildeford be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?
Will @PeterWildeford be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?
19
370Ṁ3952resolved Jul 14
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
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Resolves YES if they get the trustworthy-ish badge by the end of 2023.
Resolves NO if they do not. Also resolves NO if they get banned.
Austin's notes: @PeterWildeford is a frequent trader and commenter on Manifold, and also somewhat noteworthy as the cofounder/CEO of Rethink Priorities. However, he only has a handful of markets created and resolved at the moment. This may not be disqualifying (eg we've issued a Trustworthy-ish badge to Eliezer); basically the key question is "at what point should a famous person get the Trustworthyish badge"? Another borderline example would be Lex Fridman - well-known, but much less active on the Manifold site.
As usual, I'd love to hear people weigh in on this!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.