Will @PeterWildeford be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?
19
404
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resolved Jul 14
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if they get the trustworthy-ish badge by the end of 2023.

Resolves NO if they do not. Also resolves NO if they get banned.

Austin's notes: @PeterWildeford is a frequent trader and commenter on Manifold, and also somewhat noteworthy as the cofounder/CEO of Rethink Priorities. However, he only has a handful of markets created and resolved at the moment. This may not be disqualifying (eg we've issued a Trustworthy-ish badge to Eliezer); basically the key question is "at what point should a famous person get the Trustworthyish badge"? Another borderline example would be Lex Fridman - well-known, but much less active on the Manifold site.

As usual, I'd love to hear people weigh in on this!

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predicted YES

@PeterWildeford congrats!

predicted YES

@jskf !! <3

bought Ṁ200 of YES

I'll vouch for yes on Peter. His markets are often subjective but he interacts well in comments and clarifies and I trust he resolves them appropriately (and afaict doesn't bet on them)

He's also a pretty public person

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Happy to put M100 on my own good name.

How many markets do you need to create usually?

predicted YES

@PeterWildeford I generally think of ~30 markets as the cutoff for "has created plenty of markets"; of course, 30 markets is neither sufficient or necessary as there are a lot of other factors (eg individual market quality, other community engagement like good comments, general noteworthiness)