Will Manifold have good "stock" markets on Apr 21?
19
390Ṁ601
resolved May 12
Resolved
NO

We've been kicking around the idea of elevating "permanent stocks" (eg /memestiny/dan-stock-permanent) to being supported natively by Manifold. At times, we've referred to these as "certs", "stonks"; these also share a lot of overlap with NFTs, tokens, and coins from crypto.

However, there are a lot of mechanism design and technical questions that are unresolved. A sampling:

  • What grounds the fundamental value of these assets, if anything?

  • Can users "short sell" the stock? Does this require a margin system to work properly?

  • What do we do about duplicate versions of the same stock?

  • How are additional shares issued? How do voting rights (if any) work?


(Some other thoughts in this Notion doc.)

We don't have to answer all of these to have a good MVP, fwiw -- already, binary markets do an okay job of setting up a pretty good game for the Destiny folks. It's possible that a light re-skin of binary markets (just showing a price instead of a % in the relevant places) would be engaging enough.

But we'd still love to hear from the Manifold community about:

  • What kinds of stock markets you'd want to create

  • Mechanism proposals for making these work well

Market resolves YES if I judge that our best existing stock implementation, as of market close, is at least as good as one of our other market types (binary, multiple choice, free response, or numeric)

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