See: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-make-it-to-ea-bahamas-by-apr
Most likely I'll fly back at the end, but James and Stephen are staying a bit later (May 14th). What are the chances I'll fall in love with the community/location and extend my stay beyond the my current May 11th flight?
Apr 20, 2:23pm: Resolves N/A if I can't make it to EA Bahamas for whatever reason
💬 Proven correct
agrippa bought M$10 of YES24 days ago
I think it's probably pretty nice if you have the blessing of FTX, which I imagine you would. I would have definitely stayed if I had gotten a fellowship and my partner didn't find the Bahamas so unpleasant.
agrippa made M$54!
Austin is betting NO at 85% 19 days ago
Dang I thought to myself "I should update that market" followed by "eh no way someone's going to beat me to it"
@misha bought M$20 of YES19 days ago
Updating on Austin having covid.
agrippa bought M$10 of YES24 days ago
I think it's probably pretty nice if you have the blessing of FTX, which I imagine you would. I would have definitely stayed if I had gotten a fellowship and my partner didn't find the Bahamas so unpleasant.
Austin bought M$50 of NOa month ago
I booked flights to NYC from May 11th to May 17th, so less likely that I'll skip out on that.
(If you're in NYC around those dates, hit me up, I'm probabalistically likely to see you!)