I'm trying to find a crux for a disagreement between me and Vasco Grilo, something like "is https://manifund.org/projects/build-anti-mosqu a good project?" One thing we might be able to bet on is whether some other funder will also think this project is good.

Vasco's proposal was:

If Alex is not funded by Charity Entrepreneurship (one can apply to their incubation program with one's own idea) nor GiveWell until 1 year from now (i.e. until the end of 1 May 2025) in the context of his drone project, you send me 100 $. Otherwise, I send you 900 $ (= (1 - 0.1)/0.1*100), as I think that is less than 10 % likely.

I think this is a reasonable direction, but I would want to broaden this to be "get further funding by a funder I respect", which would include:

• Charity Entrepreneurship

• GiveWell

• EA Funds

• YCombinator

• Emergent Ventures

Plus a few others I might have forgotten. I would exclude Manifund, ACX Grants, and most individual donors, though might include eg Nat Friedman or Patrick Collison. I would want the funding to be a meaningful amount, like $10k+ (though some EV grants are smaller yet would count for my purposes).

WARNING: This market's resolution criteria are very subject to change; you should imagine this as a draft, as I try to operationalize a disagreement. If you bet while this warning is here, you accept that we may change criteria in any direction. There is a high chance this market also gets N/A'd.

• Update 2025-04-30 (PST): - Funding must be accepted and disbursed by the project; offers or acceptances that are turned down (e.g., accepted by YC but declined) do not count as a YES. (AI summary of creator comment)