The Manifold team is planning on doing a hackathon at EA Bahamas. Suggest projects here, and predict which project will take first place (as judged by me lol). We're planning on awarding Manifold dollars to projects that we like -- predict what the M$ payout distribution will look like!
I'm planning on giving out the M$ equivalent of USD $1000, $750, $500, $250, $200 to the top 5 projects, with a participation bonus of $50 to everyone else. And with Charity Prediction Markets, you could just send your winnings directly to charity!
Fine print:
- Prizes are awarded per-project, and split between those who worked on it.
- I reserve the right to change this payout e.g. by paying out more prizes.
- I also reserve the right to award projects that I've worked on (so as not to disincentivize working with me).
- I'll try to judge as fairly as possible. Maybe will make it a judging panel instead of just me, if people are interested in helping judge.
Posted on Slack:
Hey y'all! The Manifold team is doing an all-day hackathon next Friday (May 6th). And we'd love for you to join! We'd be happy to help incubate any project you have in mind, with advice or code or just moral support. Some things I've personally been dreaming of:
- Microcovid, but for other things (micromarriages, microjobs)
- Contact info exchanger app - Hand your phone to someone, they type in their name + number, and it sends a text with your name & background
- A "Common App" for EA funding
- All kinds of Manifold integrations lol (LessWrong! Slack/Discord! Metaforecast!)
And of course, we'd love to award prizes denominated in M$ to projects that seem cool (whether they're Manifold-related or not.) React/comment if you'd be interested!
Close date updated to 2022-05-07 11:59 pm
Numeric / range prediction markets on Manifold
Chosen 35%
5%
Manifold plays DnD
Chosen 18%
87%
Pairing people with skills to EA problems
Chosen 2%
1.1%
The Productivity Fund
Chosen 2%
3%
A "Common App" for EA funding1.1%
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ212 | |
| 2 | Ṁ101 | |
| 3 | Ṁ47 | |
| 4 | Ṁ46 |
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Austin
answered1 on 1 Betting
Ian
answeredManifold plays DnD
Austin
answeredkl divergence implementation in squiglge
Austin
answeredNonlinear analytics dashboard
Sinclair Chen
answeredScalar squiggly markets
Sinclair Chen
answeredScalar squiggly markets
Austin
answeredEmerson: Bonding curves for prediction markets
(sorry - Emerson doesn't have to be the one to build this, it was just his pitch at the kickoff)
Yeah, I'd like this too! One problem with this kind of app is that it's an inherently network effect, and a two-sided marketplace at that; it requires both a critical number of bounty-seekers and bounty-payers before it becomes useful.
I've long had the idea that it would be good to have a system that lets you mark friends, rate trustworthiness, and propagate recommendations along your network (a la https://cblgh.org/dl/trustnet-cblgh.pdf )
An idea I stole from @NuñoSempere https://akrolsmir.notion.site/MicroSco-b56bd27fec54447cb40e77fdc14e33ab
See a longer writeup here: https://akrolsmir.notion.site/Proposal-A-Common-App-for-EA-Funding-5c0d7d70ab8644d6a5392d9a80046edc
Hand your phone to someone, they type in their name + number, and it sends a text with your name & background
A trader bought Ṁ10 The Productivity Fund from 0.0% to 3%
A trader bought Ṁ500 Manifold plays DnD from 5% to 89%
A trader bought Ṁ30 Numeric / range pred... from 24% to 41%
A trader bought Ṁ1 1 on 1 Betting from 8% to 9%
A trader bought Ṁ1 Manifold plays DnD from 5% to 6%
A trader bought Ṁ10 Nonlinear analytics ... from 0.0% to 9%
A trader bought Ṁ10 1 on 1 Betting from 0.0% to 9%
A trader bought Ṁ10 kl divergence implem... from 0.0% to 9%
A trader bought Ṁ20 Numeric / range pred... from 16% to 33%
A trader bought Ṁ15 Numeric / range pred... from 0.0% to 16%
A trader bought Ṁ5 Microcovid, but for ... from 5% to 11%
A trader bought Ṁ1 Manifold plays DnD from 9% to 11%
A trader bought Ṁ1 Emerson: Bonding cur... from 8% to 9%
A trader bought Ṁ15 Pairing people with ... from 11% to 27%
A trader bought Ṁ20 A "Common App" for E... from 10% to 34%
A trader bought Ṁ10 Manifold plays DnD from 0.0% to 16%
A trader bought Ṁ10 Pairing people with ... from 0.0% to 18%
A trader bought Ṁ10 Emerson: Bonding cur... from 0.0% to 19%
A trader bought Ṁ1 Scalar squiggly markets from 0.0% to 2%
A trader bought Ṁ1 Contact info exchang... from 20% to 22%
A trader bought Ṁ1 A "Common App" for E... from 18% to 19%
A trader bought Ṁ1 Microcovid, but for ... from 15% to 17%
A trader bought Ṁ4 Bounties / Happy Pri... from 2% to 11%
A trader bought Ṁ1 Bounties / Happy Pri... from 0.0% to 2%
A trader bought Ṁ10 Contact info exchang... from 0.0% to 23%
A trader bought Ṁ10 A "Common App" for E... from 0.0% to 27%
A trader bought Ṁ10 Microcovid, but for ... from 0.0% to 31%