The Manifold team is planning on doing a hackathon at EA Bahamas. Suggest projects here, and predict which project will take first place (as judged by me lol). We're planning on awarding Manifold dollars to projects that we like -- predict what the M$ payout distribution will look like!
I'm planning on giving out the M$ equivalent of USD $1000, $750, $500, $250, $200 to the top 5 projects, with a participation bonus of $50 to everyone else. And with Charity Prediction Markets, you could just send your winnings directly to charity!
Fine print:
- Prizes are awarded per-project, and split between those who worked on it.
- I reserve the right to change this payout e.g. by paying out more prizes.
- I also reserve the right to award projects that I've worked on (so as not to disincentivize working with me).
- I'll try to judge as fairly as possible. Maybe will make it a judging panel instead of just me, if people are interested in helping judge.
Posted on Slack:
Hey y'all! The Manifold team is doing an all-day hackathon next Friday (May 6th). And we'd love for you to join! We'd be happy to help incubate any project you have in mind, with advice or code or just moral support. Some things I've personally been dreaming of:
- Microcovid, but for other things (micromarriages, microjobs)
- Contact info exchanger app - Hand your phone to someone, they type in their name + number, and it sends a text with your name & background
- A "Common App" for EA funding
- All kinds of Manifold integrations lol (LessWrong! Slack/Discord! Metaforecast!)
And of course, we'd love to award prizes denominated in M$ to projects that seem cool (whether they're Manifold-related or not.) React/comment if you'd be interested!
Close date updated to 2022-05-07 11:59 pm
Numeric / range prediction markets on Manifold
Chosen 35%
5%
Nonlinear analytics dashboard
Chosen 26%
0.7%
Manifold plays DnD
Chosen 18%
87%
kl divergence implementation in squiglge
Chosen 9%
0.7%
1 on 1 Betting
Chosen 7%
0.8%
Contact info exchanger app
Chosen 2%
0.3%
Pairing people with skills to EA problems
Chosen 2%
1.1%
The Productivity Fund
Chosen 2%
3%
Austin answered
A "Common App" for EA funding
1.1%
Austin answered
Microcovid, but for other things (micromarriages, microjobs)
0.5%
Austin answered
Emerson: Bonding curves for prediction markets
0.4%
Em of the Night answered
Bounties / Happy Price listing app
0.1%
Sinclair Chen answered
Scalar squiggly markets
0.0%
Ian answered14 days ago
Manifold plays DnD
87%
Austin bought M$113 days ago
By David and Ian!
James Grugett answered13 days ago
Numeric / range prediction markets on Manifold
5%
Austin answered13 days ago
The Productivity Fund
3%
Austin answered22 days ago
A "Common App" for EA funding
1.1%
Austin bought M$1022 days ago
See a longer writeup here: https://akrolsmir.notion.site/Proposal-A-Common-App-for-EA-Funding-5c0d7d70ab8644d6a5392d9a80046edc
Austin answered14 days ago
Pairing people with skills to EA problems
1.1%
Austin answered13 days ago
1 on 1 Betting
0.8%
Austin bought M$113 days ago
By Rahul!
Austin answered13 days ago
Nonlinear analytics dashboard
0.7%
Austin bought M$1013 days ago
By Maris!
Austin answered13 days ago
kl divergence implementation in squiglge
0.7%
Austin bought M$1013 days ago
By Quinn!
Austin answered22 days ago
Microcovid, but for other things (micromarriages, microjobs)
0.5%
Austin bought M$1022 days ago
An idea I stole from @NuñoSempere https://akrolsmir.notion.site/MicroSco-b56bd27fec54447cb40e77fdc14e33ab
Austin answered14 days ago
Emerson: Bonding curves for prediction markets
0.4%
Austin bought M$1014 days ago
(sorry - Emerson doesn't have to be the one to build this, it was just his pitch at the kickoff)
Austin answered22 days ago
Contact info exchanger app
0.3%
Austin bought M$1022 days ago
Hand your phone to someone, they type in their name + number, and it sends a text with your name & background
Em of the Night answered21 days ago
Bounties / Happy Price listing app
0.1%
Em of the Night bought M$121 days ago
I've long had the idea that it would be good to have a system that lets you mark friends, rate trustworthiness, and propagate recommendations along your network (a la https://cblgh.org/dl/trustnet-cblgh.pdf )
Austin bought M$421 days ago
Yeah, I'd like this too! One problem with this kind of app is that it's an inherently network effect, and a two-sided marketplace at that; it requires both a critical number of bounty-seekers and bounty-payers before it becomes useful.
Sinclair Chen answered16 days ago
Scalar squiggly markets
0.0%
Em of the Night is betting Bounties /...isting app 14 days ago
What does this mean?
I'm curious about this!
General Comments
Common app seems like low hanging fruit. I like that idea!