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π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ17 | |
| 2 | αΉ1 |
I lost money on this market, but I think it's mostly due to FTX volume having a higher beta to crypto rather than Uniswap gaining ground per se. If crypto prices hadn't crashed, I suspect I would have won.
Future markets should be conditioned on price, "Assuming bitcoin doesn't fall by more than 5% from its current value...".
@SG Hm, I'm not sure -- I think even when crypto crashes there should be some meaningful signal about whether traders are choosing Uniswap v3 vs orderbooks, so I think relative growth looks okay.
Happy to do another bet (probably a challenge bet this time, since those hadn't existed at the time when we first laid down our claims!) Something like "Will Uniswap's v3's percentage growth in market cap be larger than FTX's (or some other index)"?
As of right now, FTX is $624,697,359, Uniswap v3 is at $581,301,932.
Uniswap v3 shrank (944,210,447 - 581,301,932) / 944,210,447 = 0.38435
FTX shrank (1,793,481,959 - 624,697,359) / 1,793,481,959 = 0.65168
0.65168 / (0.65168 + 0.38435) = 0.629 or 63%.
If nobody finds any issues with this math, I'll resolve to 63% in a day or so.
I think on net, this was slightly more evidence for my position than Stephen's; though it's hard to tell. Binance, for example, dropped to 7,777,846,697
(10,046,919,963 - 7,777,846,697)/10,046,919,963 = 0.22585, aka did better than Uniswap v3
Checking in on this: Awkwardly, FTX has declined to $1,378,922,139, while Uniswap v3 has increased to $1,010,316,199. If I were to resolve this now, I'd resolve it to 100% in Uniswap's favor.
I think if one grows while the other shrinks, I'd resolve to 100% or 0%; otherwise, I'd compare the relative amount of growth/shrinkage to arrive at a percentage.