I think Uniswap v3 will grow faster than centralized exchanges using limit order books, due to the Range Order mechanism providing better results. I think Stephen disagrees? So let's try to metricize this.
This market resolves to the ratio of growth in percentage points in "24h Volume Normalized" by the market close date, between Uniswap v3 and FTX. Based on what https://www.coingecko.com/en/exchanges lists.
Uniswap v3 today: $944,210,447
FTX today: $1,793,481,959
Eg if Uniswap v3 grows 20% and FTX grows 10%, this market would resolve to 20:10 = 2:1 = 66%.
80% we can simulate Maniswap just using v3: https://www.paradigm.xyz/2021/06/uniswap-v3-the-universal-amm
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Yeah I kinda maybe should have picked Binance instead lol. Ideally there's some index off "order book exchanges" - maybe if Serum is listed?
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Not sure if this question framing actually gets at my core belief, which is that Uniswap v3 Range Orders are the best way to allow people to provide liquidity/express beliefs. But it's a reasonable try, IMO
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