What will the ratio of growth be between Uniswap v3 and FTX?
66%
chance
Sep 4
M$235 bet
I think Uniswap v3 will grow faster than centralized exchanges using limit order books, due to the Range Order mechanism providing better results. I think Stephen disagrees? So let's try to metricize this. This market resolves to the ratio of growth in percentage points in "24h Volume Normalized" by the market close date, between Uniswap v3 and FTX. Based on what https://www.coingecko.com/en/exchanges lists. Uniswap v3 today: $944,210,447 FTX today: $1,793,481,959 Eg if Uniswap v3 grows 20% and FTX grows 10%, this market would resolve to 20:10 = 2:1 = 66%.
Austin
Austin is betting YES at 59%
80% we can simulate Maniswap just using v3: https://www.paradigm.xyz/2021/06/uniswap-v3-the-universal-amm
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Austin
Austin is betting YES at 39%
Yeah I kinda maybe should have picked Binance instead lol. Ideally there's some index off "order book exchanges" - maybe if Serum is listed?
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Austin
Austin is betting YES at 59%
For posterity, Binance is at $10,046,919,963 today
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SG
S G bought M$50 of NO
Never bet against SBF.
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Austin
Austin bought M$30 of YES
Not sure if this question framing actually gets at my core belief, which is that Uniswap v3 Range Orders are the best way to allow people to provide liquidity/express beliefs. But it's a reasonable try, IMO
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