Austin

There are two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know

Forrest Taylor

Why is Hollywood starting to pay more attention to Manifold?
Because it's super for casting!

My friends held an intervention for me about my addiction to Manifold. I stopped listening when they said that they were uncertain about my future.

Martin Randall

What is the difference between love and the CFTC?
Money can't buy me love.

This little piggy went to market and got a wolf migration forecast for the next 24 hours

And now the shipping forecast issued by Manifold Markets. Aella, Fair Isle, Destiny, Dogger. Storms, 4 to 6, occasionally seven. Poor, becoming very good later.

Timothy

Why are prediction markets on the efficient market hypothesis always mispriced? 

Everyone who could correct the market thinks there would be no money to be made from it, so they don't try to correct it.

Tommy Eagle

Did you hear the rumor Nick Foles is placing superbowl bets on manifold? He was overheard talking about being long Hurts. 

Fabien Le Guillarm

Introducing Origami Markets, the evolution of Many-folds Markets!

Michael

Why do probabilities have a mass? If they didn't, we couldn't weigh how likely anything was.

DesTiny

Why did the economist join the prediction market?

Because they heard it was the only place where their opinions could be worth more than their education!

Roberto Gomez

How did the zealot answer when pressed to bet on her professed beliefs?
Man, I fold!

Roses are red
Violets are blue
Markets are efficient
thanks to me and you
not

Patrick Barry

I am a market farmer, I state all sorts of things! 
Will my tomatoes ripen? What about my greens?

Carson Gale

How many quadratic funders does it take to change a light bulb? None, they'll just match the funds to the person who can do it best!

A prediction market creator, a prediction market trader, and a quadratic funder meet in a bar. The bartender asks the group: "What would everyone like to drink?" 

The prediction market creator's instincts quickly took hold. "$10 of initial liquidity for a prediction market regarding what I should drink tonight" he cried loudly to the dozens of surprised bar attendees. The crowd murmured confusedly. 

Then the quadratic funder shook his head disapprovingly. "My friend, there is a better way! Have you not read Vitalik's latest primer?" he turned his attention to the increasingly confused crowd. "Fellow enjoyers of this fine establishment" he bellowed, "please disregard my friend's market, which is sure to garner insufficient engagement due to poor incentives. I now offer you $200 of dispersable funds in a quadratic funding solution for drink proposals for my evening. Please provide ideas, and fellow party-goers can pay the idea providers trivial amounts and they will be well-compensated!"

The bartender, amidst supportive chanting from the irritated crowd (who at this point had suffered quite enough), grabbed the prediction market creator and the quadratic funder by their collars and guided them to the exit, where he roughly pushed them out into the bar entrance. "And STAY OUT!" he shouted. 

The prediction market trader looked down sadly and pulled $500 out of his wallet. "Here's your payout, Mr. Bartender. But I still can't believe you predicted this turn of events in our bet earlier this morning. How did you know the bar crowd would turn against my friends like that?"

The bartender grinned and took off his hyper-realistic mask. It was Bryan Caplan that stood before him! "Base rates, my friend!" he exclaimed excitedly in a high voice, snatching up the money from the astonished trader. "After many years of interacting with prediction markets and QF enthusiasts, I've learned that insufferability is a core, insuppressible trait for this crowd. I make money every time!"

 There are 2 morals to this story: (i) pick your drinking friends wisely, and (ii) never bet against Bryan Caplan!

Patrick Delaney

Q. Why did the faithless Manifolder start participating in quadratic markets? A. Because they didn't believe in a higher power.

This is a test of our newest market type, Quadratic Funding! Submit some jokes related to forecasting or markets, and we'll include the best ones in our next newsletter.

Unlike a Free Response market where you bet on which entries will be chosen, with quadratic funding, readers can directly send mana as a tip to their favorite jokesters. The quadratic funding mechanism will then match donations in a democratic way, with more popular jokes receiving more matching.

(Specifically, each joke will receive the square of the sum of sqrt(tips). E.g. a joke that gets 10 tips of 1 mana will receive 100 mana total, with the 90 extra mana coming from a matching pool. See 

Quadratic Funding markets are deprecated

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